Everything behind the call on NXP Semiconductors N.V. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — NXPI trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $239.63 · -4.9% 200-day $242.97 · -6.2%
Earnings
In 38 days
26 Oct 2026
beat 7–8 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 80% · n=35,425
Valuation
12.5× forward
76th of its own five-year range
5yr median 22×
Dividend
1.78%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.79 · vol 35% ann. worst drawdown -34%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
interest covered 6.5×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJul 17, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill6.5×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.42
Your ownership stake
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
0.56%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.11%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
3.8%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.64%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
1 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.58M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
+5.3%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
+0.9%
3 months
-27.2%
6 months
+18.5%
Year to date
+3.0%
1 year
+2.7%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 19%
19 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=35,425 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
7 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
39%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
n=23 beats — a conditional rate over its own denominator, not a share of all prints
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.3%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
n=25 prints · p90 ±7.0% · worst 25.5% (2026-04-28)
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+1.0% / -3.9%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
n=23 beats · n=1 misses — each average over its own denominator
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
1.78%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $239.63 · 200-day $242.97. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.02% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$57.04B
Day range$224.86 – $231.36
Above 52-week low+25%
Realized volatility35% ann.
Worst drawdown-33.7%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
49
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.3%
$7.60
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+1.45
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position77% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$224.23
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$214.73
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
26 Oct 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 4 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
62 / 38cohort n=21,623
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.04× segment rate · n=6,164
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 69% of cases (n=6,164).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$213 – $2273 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $222.99, Pivot low at $217.26, Pivot low at $217.00.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 38% of cases (n=21,623) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.24pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months12.5×5yr median 22×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported19.3×76th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth2.02
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$226.79In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50
$241.93$240–$244
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$211.30risk $15.49/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.98:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+5.1%
short-term trend line · $239.63
To the 200-day
+6.6%
primary trend line · $242.97
To the composer's target
+6.1%
Round + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $241.93
To the composer's stop
-7.3%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 17, 2026 · $211.30
To the 52-week high
+49.1%
highest print of the past year · $339.95
To the 52-week low
-19.7%
lowest print of the past year · $183.00
A typical day (ATR)
$220.39 – $235.59
±$7.60 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $226.79 · stop $211.30 · target $241.93, a 0.98:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 99%, short interest is 3.41% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
Earnings +3
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 2%
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
99.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.1%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
3.41%
Falling — shares short changed -3.2% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float100% OF SHARES
251.99M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)98th PCTILE
$884.80M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+0.02%
NXPI was little changed +0.02% in after-hours trading — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Matched · Sep 18, 2026
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
4 of 6 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
Disclosed lawmaker trades, with their legal reporting lag.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.79, 35% annual volatility, a -34% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−8.2%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−12.5%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.1×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-33.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.79
Moves about 1.8× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.76
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
35%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure33
Overheat16
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.5%0.7× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.5% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -34%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 35% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.79 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
27 logged
27 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
10 resolved · 17 open
Calls on NXPITHIS NAME
27
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksSEMICONDUCTORS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 16 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+1.0% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NVDAPeer$222.27+1.34%
TSMPeer$434.67+1.02%
AVGOPeer$357.61+2.97%
MUPeer$1,015.80+3.92%
AMDPeer$559.82+2.70%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Historical retrospective. Context, not a forecast.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=39
1.23×
On these days it moves about 1.2× the market, regardless of company news.
Measured over 39 events
Jobs report reactionn=40
0.89×
On these days it moves about 0.9× the market, regardless of company news.
Measured over 40 events
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=39
0.97×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Measured over 39 events
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=39
1.01×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Measured over 39 events
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 18, 2026
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, NXPI moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 77 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, NXPI moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Chip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, NXPI moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Chip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, NXPI moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Chip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, NXPI moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Chip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, NXPI moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 11 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, NXPI moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 24 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, NXPI moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.