Risk leaderboards

Four daily boards, each ranking the 20 names sitting furthest out on one measured risk dimension. Code computes every ranking; each board describes what the filings and the tape show, and none of them is a recommendation.

• Highest model-implied default probability
  A structural (Merton) read off market cap, debt and volatility. Non-US filers and saturated readings are withheld — local-currency filings break the leverage input.
• Most filing-forensic flags on file
  Counted from validated filing-forensic signals over roughly the last 18 months. Flags describe what the filings show.
• Highest historical drawdown odds
  The 12-month historical odds of a 20%+ drawdown for this name's red-flag cohort — a cohort record, not a per-name forecast.
• Negative book equity
  Names whose latest balance sheet shows liabilities above assets. Many causes, benign and not.