TICK
QT
/ NVDA
NVDANASDAQBullishHYPER-GROWTHjudged on execution & valuation
NVIDIA Corporation · Information Technology
After hours
$179.84
+1.42 (+0.80%)
At close
$178.42
+2.51%
Jun 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET · At close · 6:42 PM ET 15-min delayed
Mkt cap$4.36T
P/E · fwd31.9 · 16.4
Div yield0.48%
Beta 1y1.79
Volume198.40M0.93× avg
52-wk range -8.8%87196
Caution readCautious
Your position
Shares40
Avg cost$118.50
Cost basis$4,740
Market value$7,137
Unrealized+$2,397 (+50.6%)
What we found on NVDA
Free 14 days, then $20/mo · cancel anytime
!Running hotRSI 61 and ~4% above the 20-day; pullback risk elevated.
iPressing the $180 call walldealer gamma resistance overhead into Friday's expiry.
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
Overseas lean+0.54%
FrankfurtNVD+0.62%
London (OTC)0R1I+0.48%
MéxicoNVDA.MX+0.74%
TokyoNVDA.T+0.31%
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward 80% price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None are due yet, so there's no hit-rate to show: this builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

480
bands logged
0
resolved so far
Jul 5
first results
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readHolding bidfact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

Golden crossDescending channel50-day sits above the 200-day — bullish long-term structure.
154.0165.6177.2188.8200.4Descending channelS · 170S · 165R · 180R · 185max pain 175
Tap & drag the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions · prev close $174.05 (dashed)
Open
$175.10
Prev close
$174.05
Volume
198.40M
avg 212.60M
Rel. volume
0.93×
below normal
Market cap
$4.36T
Shares out
24.44B
float 23.51B
Day range
$174.60$179.88
52-week range
$86.62$195.62
-8.8% from high+106.0% above low
How it's performed price then → now, $178.42
3 months ago
$156.34
+14.1%
6 months ago
$162.65
+9.7%
1 year ago
$112.78
+58.2%
3 years ago
$22.88
+679.8%

QTick signal

Our net read
Data not available.

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

60
/ 100
Integrity score
C
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
2 clear2 watch1 critical
Test battery
!!
5 forensic tests · 2 passed clean · 2 flagged for watch
Clear
Bankruptcy distressZ 68.05
Altman-Z in the Safe
Critical
Earnings manipulationM -1.13
Possible manipulation
Clear
LeverageD/E 0.05
debt-to-equity 0.05×
!Watch
Profitability qualityF 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics1 flag(s)
1 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Section readRed-Flag X-Ray
C
integrity 0–100 · 7-test battery
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks. 80+ is clean; a 'watch' item is minor; a 'critical' flag is serious.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readSkews downsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 30d
Upside 47.5%52.5% Downside
Skew favours downside · base rate 50/50
Expected move · 1wk±6.6% ≈ $11.78
Upside target$213.27 +19.5% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop$201.22 +12.8% · level, not a call
Reward : risk-1.5 : 1
BullClose above $213 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $201 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk
LowElevatedHigh
Tape is 1.4σ stretched — pullback risk elevated.
  • price 1.4σ from its 20-day mean
  • forensic/accounting flag on file
In detail
How to read the odds
These are model probabilitiesfrom price action, options-implied skew and factor stretch — a read on the balance of risk, not a guarantee. A high pullback score means the tape is extended and prone to mean-revert; it doesn't predict timing. Research, never advice.

Trend & technical structure

Trend & technicals

The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.

The readUptrend intactwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact

Moving averages set the direction; RSI and the bands tell you whether the move has gone too far.

Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day-5.4%
Momentum, bands & levels
In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions. Research, never advice.

Pattern outcomes

QTick
Data not available.

Momentum & performance

Momentum / performance

Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.

The readMarket leaderwhere it sitsRS percentile vs market

How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. Strong, rising momentum tends to persist.

Trailing returns
1-month-5.1%
3-month+11.9%
6-month+12.2%
Year-to-date+10.2%
1-year+46.0%
12-1 momentum+51.9%
Relative strength vs S&P 500
73.3
RS-rank
percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)+2.72
In detail
What relative strength tells you
RS-rank 73.3 means NVDA has outpaced 73.3% of the market over the trailing year. High and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor — leaders tend to keep leading until they don't.

Risk profile

Risk

Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars.

The readElevatedwhere it sitspercentile vs S&P universe

Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Size positions to these.

Beta · 1-year
1.79
more sensitive than market
Beta · 3-year
2.05
Realized vol · 30d
43.9%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y
-20.2%
In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 1.79 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~1.79% move here. Realized vol of 44% and a 20% worst-case 1-year drawdown frame how much patience a position needs.
ProFailure modes · derived analysis

How this kind of company fails

Failure modes · Hyper-growth

Different businesses break in different ways. This section reshapes by company type — these are the specific failure modes for a name like this one.

The readHyper-growthwhere it sitsrouted by company type

Different company types fail in different ways — a bank runs on deposits, a hyper-growth name on its valuation. These are the specific ways a stock like this tends to break.

Multiple compression38× fwd
Most of the value is priced years out — a growth wobble or a higher discount rate hits the multiple hard, before earnings even move.
Demand air-pocketconcentration
A handful of hyperscalers drive the order book. If one pauses capex, the revenue line turns fast — execution, not the balance sheet, is the failure point.
Competitive moatwatch
Custom silicon or a credible second source would erode pricing power. The risk is gradual margin give-back, not a sudden break.
↳ Failure modes are routed by company type (bank · growth · etc.), not a one-size scorecard. Observational — research, never advice.
See the specific ways a company like this actually breaks — routed by company type, not generic risk boilerplate.
The verdict and plain read above stay free, forever — and Pro is free to try, so this costs nothing to open.
Free 14 days, then $20/mo · cancel anytime

Macro sensitivity

QTick
Data not available.

Valuation

Valuation

Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

The readFairwhere it sitsmultiple percentile vs S&P

Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

Premium valuationPriced at a premium — the market is paying up for growth and quality. Leaves little margin for error if results disappoint. Rich ≠ a sell.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)Price ÷ last 12 months of profit31.9×Rich
Forward P/EPrice ÷ next year's expected profit16.4×Fair
PEG ratioP/E adjusted for growth — under 1 is cheap0.38Cheap
Earnings yieldProfit as a % of price, like a bond yield3.13%Fair
Dividend yieldAnnual cash paid to holders, % of price0.48%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / SalesPrice ÷ annual revenue23.4×Rich
Price / BookPrice ÷ net assets on the books32.06×Rich
EV / EBITDAWhole-company value ÷ operating cash earnings44.0×Rich
Price / FCFPrice ÷ free cash flow generated52.2×Rich
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
AVGOCompetitor-1.1%
TSMSupplier+0.3%
MUSupplier-1.4%
AMDCompetitor-3.0%
INTCSupplier-2.1%
Section readValuation
Fair
multiple percentile vs S&P
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

Fundamentals & quality

Fundamentals / quality

How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.

The readHigh qualitywhere it sitspercentile vs sector

Scale, profitability and balance sheet. Growing revenue, widening margins and clean returns mean a durable business.

High-quality & fast-growingFat margins, strong returns on capital and rapid growth — the profile of a durable market leader.
Scale & growth
Revenue · TTMTotal sales over the last 12 months$215.94BScale
EPS · TTMProfit earned per share$4.90Profit
Net marginCents of profit kept per $1 of sales55.6%Strong
Revenue growthSales vs a year ago+65.5%Strong
EPS growthProfit-per-share vs a year ago+66.7%Strong
Margin trajectoryAre profit margins widening or shrinking?expandingStrong
Returns & balance sheet
ROEProfit generated on shareholders' equity76.3%Strong
ROICReturn on all invested capital78.5%Strong
Gross / Op marginProfitability before & after operating costs71% / 60%Strong
Free cash flowCash left after running & investing$96.68BStrong
Debt / EquityBorrowings vs equity — lower is safer0.07Strong
Current ratioCan it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthy4.10Strong
Section readQuality
High quality
percentile vs sector
Scale, profitability and balance sheet. Growing revenue, widening margins and clean returns mean a durable business.

Credit & safety

QTick
Data not available.
ProDilution radar · derived analysis

Are your shares being diluted?

Derived · ownership erosion

Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.

The readBuying backwhere it sitsdilution percentile vs peers

How fast the share count is growing versus peers. Buybacks help you; heavy stock-based pay dilutes you.

5-year share-count CAGR
Buyback — count shrinking-49.0%/yr
100+10
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
LeastMedianMost
0percentile100
Peer percentile58th above median
Stock-comp % of revenue7.1%
Shares outstanding · indexed 5y
5y ago = 10098.6
In detail
What the radar is saying
The count is shrinking 49.0%a year via buybacks — accretive: each share you hold becomes a slightly bigger slice. It's among the least dilutive (58th percentile) of its peers. Research, never advice.
See whether your stake is quietly being diluted — 5-year share-count trend, stock-comp load, and rank vs peers.
The verdict and plain read above stay free, forever — and Pro is free to try, so this costs nothing to open.
Free 14 days, then $20/mo · cancel anytime

Analyst & estimates

Analyst & estimates

Consensus, price targets, forward estimates and the bank's history of beating them.

The readStreet leans bullishwhere it sitswhere Wall Street sits · not QTick

Targets matter less than which way estimates are heading and how often the company beats them.

Consensus rating
Buy
64 analysts · score 1.4/5
Rating breakdown not available
12-month price target
low $180.00now $178.42high $500.00
Mean target$295.00 (+65.3%)
Forward estimates & revisions
Forward EPS consensus
Revision breadth · 30d
Revision momentum
Beat-rate · 8q
EPS surprise history
EPS surprise history not available
Recent rating changes

Smart money & positioning

Smart money

Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

The readwhere it sitspositioning band · not a vote

Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

Holders
Institutional
Insider0.0%
Institutional flow
Fund concentration
Activist stakeNone on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net
10b5-1 vs discretionaryscheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float0.0%
Short interest · 30d Δ
Options positioning
Put/call · OI0.62
Put/call · volume0.85
Implied movenext exp.±2.0%
IV skew (25Δ)+3.9% put-skewed
In detail
What positioning is whispering
Institutional flow data unavailable. A put/call of 0.61 and put-skewed IV say the options market is leaning defensive.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional
FilerSourceActionValueDate
Neal Stephen CDirectorInsiderSell330000005 Jun
STEVENS MARK ADirectorInsiderSell11120000004 Jun
STEVENS MARK ADirectorInsiderSell8810000004 Jun
STEVENS MARK ADirectorInsiderSell004 Jun
STEVENS MARK ADirectorInsiderSell2180000004 Jun
13F gurus · last quarter
Tiger Global ManagementAdded+12.0M sh · $2.1B
Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio)Added+4.7M sh · $818M
Renaissance TechnologiesAdded+2.5M sh · $441M
Third Point (Dan Loeb)Added+0.2M sh · $33M

Smart-money flow

QTick
Data not available.

Options microstructure

Options microstructure

Computed over the stored full chain — where dealer hedging concentrates.

The readPinned to a levelwhere it sitsmarket-structure band

The busiest option strikes can pull the price toward them or speed moves up. They act as support and resistance.

Open-interest by strike · gamma walls
Puts OI (k)Calls OI (k)
10
227.5
3051
373
225
9857
389
222.5
5773
603
220
15962WALL
1443
217.5
6233
2053
215
13311
1652
212.5
9696
4308
210
13051
6318
207.5
4382
5698
205
1331
5977
202.5
772
WALL8193
200
577
2799
197.5
367
4382
195
115
1983
192.5
101
6857
190
138
spot $208.19 max pain $210 (+0.9%)
Dealer regime & expected move
Gamma exposure (GEX)
Positive
long
Max pain$210.00 (+0.9%)
Put/call · OI0.62
Call wall$220.00 resistance
Put wall$200.00 support
Expected move · session±2.9%
Expected move · week±6.6%
Pinned ≈ $210Call-heavyLong gamma
In detail
What the options are saying
Positioning is top-heavy with calls — about 84717k of call open interest against 53038k of puts (P/C 0.61). That's a stack of upside bets sitting as overhead supply, which is why dealers defend the $220 call wall as a ceiling. Dealers are long gamma, so they lean against moves: that pins price toward the $210 max-pain magnet — currently 0.9% above spot — into Friday's expiry. Expect chop, not breakouts, unless $200 gives way. The chain is pricing about ±6.558136427464747% (≈ $13.65) over the coming week.
ProGamma map · derived analysis

Where dealers pin the tape

Derived · dealer hedging · marquee

Open interest is free everywhere. What it does — whether dealer hedging dampens or amplifies a 1% move, and the walls price gets magnetized to — is the derived read.

The readHedging calms moveswhere it sitsdealer-positioning band

Whether options dealers' hedging is calming the price or likely to amplify the next move, and the levels it's drawn to.

Support / resistance rails
call wall · resistance$232.5
spot$208.19
put wall · support$200
Dealer regime
Long gamma — dealers dampen moves
Net dealer gamma+$37.01M per 1% move
ATM implied vol0.5%
Expected move · 1d±2.9%
Expected move · 1w±6.6%
OTM IV skew (25Δ)+14.0% put-skewed
In detail
What the gamma map is saying
Dealers are long gamma, so they lean against moves — price gets pinned between support at $200 and resistance at $232.5 into expiry. Net gamma of +$37.01M is the dollar hedging effect per 1% move — the consequence a raw chain never tells you. Research, never advice.
See exactly where dealer hedging pins the price or lets it break — the call wall, put wall, and net hedging pressure.
The verdict and plain read above stay free, forever — and Pro is free to try, so this costs nothing to open.
Free 14 days, then $20/mo · cancel anytime
SponsoredLevel II real-time depthFull depth-of-book and time & sales. 14-day free trial →

Peers & supply chain

Territory · peers & supply chain

The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.

The readOutpacing groupfact

How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.

TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move
NVDAThis stock+2.51%
AVGOCompetitor-1.12%
TSMSupplier+0.26%
MUSupplier-1.41%
AMDCompetitor-3.02%
INTCSupplier-2.13%
In detail
Outpacing its peers
NVDA is +4.0% ahead of the peer average (-1.48%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together
COHR-11.4%TSM+0.3%CHRN-0.5%OPENAIMETA-0.1%INTC-2.1%NBIS+1.0%MSFT-2.0%DELL-4.7%00066-9.9%XAIWPP+6.8%CDNS-0.9%SNPS-1.7%VICR+3.1%CDNS-0.9%SNPS-1.7%AMD-3.0%NVDA+2.51%the stock
suppliercustomerpartnercompetitor

What's moving the stock

The Story · news & social

The headlines actually moving the stock, with the crowd's mood shown next to each.

The readCrowd mixedfactread as contrarian context

What moved the stock, plus how bullish the crowd is — which tends to be loudest right at the turning points.

Latest headlines 00▼ of 50
Neutral
Better IPO Buy: SpaceX vs Anthropic
NEWSMotley Fool·28 min ago
Neutral
Uber’s European Robotaxis Test Multi Partner Path To Long Term Gains
NEWSSimply Wall St.·1h ago
Neutral
Is Upstart's AI Lending Comeback the Real Deal?
NEWSMotley Fool·1h ago
Neutral
ProShares Plans 2x SpaceX ETF Launch on Day of Record IPO
NEWSBeInCrypto·3h ago
Social sentiment
Per-platform sentiment data not available

Calibration scorecard

Auditable track record

Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

1
calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (0/8)
Resolved
0
awaiting first results
Open calls
1
tracked, unresolved
NVDA track record
building
published once resolved
Section readTrack record
Building
Our public hit-rate, misses included — a track record only means something if it can't be cherry-picked.