Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — Semiconductors. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TSMpeers & supply-chain relationships

TSM fair-value estimate

TSM earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:22 PM ETVol 3.66M · 3-mo avg 12.51M

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
+9net
5 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~5% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$428.11
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$475–480
center $477.72 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$18.36
4.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.29×
52-week range$262.81 – $479.00
Below high since 2015-10.2% · $479.00 high
Risk / reward1.54 : 1
Plan stop$399.07
Max pain$420.00 options cluster
RSI 1455.3 fires under 35 · fires near $384.74
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple19.6× fwd · 32.0× trailing
P/E vs its own past4th pctile · 25.6× median
Free cash flow yield44.5% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price unchanged. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
55.3
fires under 35 · fires near $384.74
vs 50-day
$416.35
above the line · fires near $420.05
Bollinger
$404.41
no lower pierce · fires near $400.92
VWAP 20
$421.13
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $420.93
Entry level
$428.11
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$400.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.36
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.29×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
0.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$10.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-15
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
USD 1.02
ex-date 2026-12-10