Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — Semiconductors. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TSMpeers & supply-chain relationships

TSM fair-value estimate

TSM earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 23.80M · 3-mo avg 11.24M

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
+6net
4 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 6 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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$373.56
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$395–403
near the options pressure point, a round-number price and the 200-day average · midpoint $399.01 · Nov 6
±$34.43
±9.2% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
High
87% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume62% above normal1.62× its 20-day average
Past year's range$266.82 – $487.47lowest to highest price
From its peak23.0% belowpeak $487.47, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.64 to 1$0.64 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$338.58the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$397.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)36.3fires under 35 · fires near $372.00
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit16.1× next year24.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 48%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 24.9×
Cash it generates51.0%of its market value, per year

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 6.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 61% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
36.3
fires under 35 · fires near $372.00
vs 50-day
✓
$431.37
below the line
Bollinger
●
$371.47
no lower pierce · fires near $370.06
VWAP 20
✓
$407.98
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$373.56
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$400.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-04
MACD
Context●
-6.30
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.62×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
0.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$17.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-14
in 46 sessions
Next dividend
USD 1.02
ex-date 2026-12-10