Sector rotation
Loading the weekly board…
Loading the weekly board…
Where each sector's strength versus SPY sits, and which way it's moving, for the week of 2026-07-24. These describe the tape, not predict it — and strength versus SPY isn't the same as a price going up. The reading smooths about six weeks of data, so it turns slowly.
Each dot is one sector or theme, placed by how its price is doing against SPY: right is stronger, left is weaker, up means that strength is building, down means it’s fading.
Sectors tend to drift clockwise — Improving into Leading, Leading into Weakening, Weakening into Lagging — so the tail behind each dot is where it’s been over the last 13 weeks.
This is strength relative to SPY, not raw price: a sector can sit in Leading while its price is flat, if the rest of the market is falling faster.
The reading smooths about six weeks of data, so it’s a slow, trend-following view — it catches turns late on purpose, and it isn’t a forecast.
The read this week: strength is fading in Biotech, Homebuilders, and Cybersecurity and building in Oil & Gas E&P, Gold Miners, and Uranium, versus SPY.
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 17.7% of past cases.
180 similar cases, 2023–now · 14–23% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 95.6% of past cases.
180 similar cases, 2023–now · 93.5–97.1% range
Stayed in Leading through 4 weeks in 51.9% of past cases.
180 similar cases, 2023–now · 44.6–58% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 43% of past cases.
173 similar cases, 2023–now · 35.6–52.5% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 96.8% of past cases.
173 similar cases, 2023–now · 94.8–98.3% range
Stayed in Leading through 8 weeks in 12.5% of past cases.
173 similar cases, 2023–now · 9.1–16.7% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 70.2% of past cases.
170 similar cases, 2023–now · 61.7–79% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 98.1% of past cases.
170 similar cases, 2023–now · 96.5–99.2% range
Stayed in Leading through 13 weeks in 0.2% of past cases.
170 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–1.2% range
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 26.6% of past cases.
163 similar cases, 2023–now · 20.8–34.4% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 74.2% of past cases.
163 similar cases, 2023–now · 69.4–78.1% range
Stayed in Leading through 4 weeks in 26.2% of past cases.
163 similar cases, 2023–now · 20.5–31.5% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 55.4% of past cases.
162 similar cases, 2023–now · 47.6–66% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 81.4% of past cases.
162 similar cases, 2023–now · 77.7–84.6% range
Stayed in Leading through 8 weeks in 5.1% of past cases.
162 similar cases, 2023–now · 2.8–7.8% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 73.9% of past cases.
157 similar cases, 2023–now · 63.5–83.2% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 87.8% of past cases.
157 similar cases, 2023–now · 84.5–91% range
Stayed in Leading through 13 weeks in 0% of past cases.
157 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–0.8% range
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 24.7% of past cases.
164 similar cases, 2023–now · 19.2–32.1% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 52.6% of past cases.
164 similar cases, 2023–now · 41.4–61.1% range
Stayed in Improving through 4 weeks in 26.3% of past cases.
164 similar cases, 2023–now · 19.4–34.1% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 48.6% of past cases.
151 similar cases, 2023–now · 39.4–57.9% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 73.6% of past cases.
151 similar cases, 2023–now · 59.6–83.2% range
Stayed in Improving through 8 weeks in 3.1% of past cases.
151 similar cases, 2023–now · 0.6–6.5% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 69.6% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 58.5–78.1% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 85.8% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 74–94.1% range
Stayed in Improving through 13 weeks in 0% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–1.1% range
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 54.4% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 45.9–64.1% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 27.2% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 22.9–32.3% range
Stayed in Weakening through 4 weeks in 24.1% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 16.2–30.6% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 68.4% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 60.4–76.4% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 53.9% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 43.7–63.9% range
Stayed in Weakening through 8 weeks in 3.9% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 0.7–6.7% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 77.2% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 69.6–83.4% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 66% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 57–75.2% range
Stayed in Weakening through 13 weeks in 0% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–0.9% range
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 66.5% of past cases.
155 similar cases, 2023–now · 60.5–72.6% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 25.1% of past cases.
155 similar cases, 2023–now · 19.3–30.8% range
Stayed in Lagging through 4 weeks in 15.1% of past cases.
155 similar cases, 2023–now · 9.2–23.3% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 79.4% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 73.8–84.9% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 50.8% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 41–57.1% range
Stayed in Lagging through 8 weeks in 2.5% of past cases.
150 similar cases, 2023–now · 0.4–5.4% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 86% of past cases.
137 similar cases, 2023–now · 80.9–90% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 73.9% of past cases.
137 similar cases, 2023–now · 62.3–81.1% range
Stayed in Lagging through 13 weeks in 0% of past cases.
137 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–1.7% range
Reached Lagging within 4 weeks in 54.4% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 45.9–64.1% range
Reached Leading within 4 weeks in 27.2% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 22.9–32.3% range
Stayed in Weakening through 4 weeks in 24.1% of past cases.
142 similar cases, 2023–now · 16.2–30.6% range
Reached Lagging within 8 weeks in 68.4% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 60.4–76.4% range
Reached Leading within 8 weeks in 53.9% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 43.7–63.9% range
Stayed in Weakening through 8 weeks in 3.9% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 0.7–6.7% range
Reached Lagging within 13 weeks in 77.2% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 69.6–83.4% range
Reached Leading within 13 weeks in 66% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 57–75.2% range
Stayed in Weakening through 13 weeks in 0% of past cases.
138 similar cases, 2023–now · 0–0.9% range
These are plain historical frequencies, 2023 to now, pooled across all 23 sectors and themes on the board — a count of what happened after similar setups, not a forecast and not a tuned probability. Setups with too few cases are left out rather than shown as a shaky number.
Open any name to see its own signals, levels, and odds.