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Events · who it helps and who it hurts

Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)

The Fed's preferred inflation measure without food and energy, the one its target is written against.

Next release: Sep 30, 2026 at 08:30 US/Eastern · Last release: Jul 1, 2026, read as cooler

The reads below are for when inflation runs hotter than expected. Expect the opposite when inflation comes in cooler than expected. Cooler was the last call.

Sectors

Real EstateUsually hurtsProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
TechnologyUsually hurtsHotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
UtilitiesUsually hurtsUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Basic MaterialsUsually helpsMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Communication ServicesUsually hurtsMedia and internet companies are valued on future growth, so higher rates for longer weigh on them.
Consumer CyclicalUsually hurtsHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
EnergyUsually helpsOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
IndustrialsUsually hurtsFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Consumer DefensiveLittle effectFood and household brands pass higher costs on to shoppers over time; little reaction on the day.
Financial ServicesLittle effectBanks earn more on loans when rates rise but take losses on the bonds they hold; the two roughly cancel on the day.
HealthcareLittle effectPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.

Where each sector’s relative strength sits this week is on the rotation board.

Industries that behave differently from their sector

REIT - MortgageUsually hurtsThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Residential ConstructionUsually hurtsMortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Software - ApplicationUsually hurtsSoftware companies' value is mostly future profits, which are worth less when rates rise.
AirlinesUsually hurtsAirlines carry heavy debt and sell discretionary travel; hotter inflation hurts both.
Banks - RegionalUsually hurtsSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Insurance - Property & CasualtyUsually helpsInsurers invest premiums in bonds; higher rates mean more investment income.
Oil & Gas E&PUsually helpsDrillers earn more when energy prices rise with inflation.SemiconductorsUsually hurtsChip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
GoldLittle effectGold does well when inflation outruns interest rates and badly when rates rise faster; on the day it is a coin flip.

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