Track record
Every prediction QTick publishes lands in a ledger and is graded once the outcome is known. Rates below are shown only once a methodology has enough resolved calls to mean something (30+) — below that, the ledger is still building and no rate is shown. Misses are listed exactly like hits.
Resolved this week
513
Methodologies published
2
By methodology
vol_band_30d_v1
calibration published over 29475 resolved predictions
78.2%In-band rate · n=29475
84.4%Beat consensus · n=29475
risk_odds_v1
calibration builds as predictions resolve (0/30)
fair_value_v1
calibration builds as predictions resolve (0/30)
verdict.v2
calibration builds as predictions resolve (0/30) · three resolution methods pooled here — read the per-word rows, where each method is named (VERDICT_JUSTIFICATION_SPEC.md §7)
avoid_score_v21
calibration builds as predictions resolve (0/30)
net_signal.v1
calibration published over 363 resolved predictions · sample selected by page views and the top-watchlist sweep — descriptive only; writer retired 2026-08-29 (T-88), superseded by net_signal.v2.universe
42.9%Direction hit rate · n=363
By word
STRIKE. · triggers lined up · touch order over daily high/low · 63 sessions
building as calls resolve (0/30) · bars are dividend-blind: an ex-dividend gap counts as a price move — conservative for STRIKE, generous for SELL · every covered name is graded at its close each night; a call that appeared and reverted within one session is graded only if a page evaluation saw it
SELL. · target reached · close at horizon vs close at call · 21 sessions
building as calls resolve (0/30) · bars are dividend-blind: an ex-dividend gap counts as a price move — conservative for STRIKE, generous for SELL · every covered name is graded at its close each night; a call that appeared and reverted within one session is graded only if a page evaluation saw it
SELL. · bearish read · touch order over daily high/low · 63 sessions
building as calls resolve (0/30) · bars are dividend-blind: an ex-dividend gap counts as a price move — conservative for STRIKE, generous for SELL · every covered name is graded at its close each night; a call that appeared and reverted within one session is graded only if a page evaluation saw it
Recent calls
- ✕CTRNrange call · 2026-09-25 · missSep 26
- ✓CTOSrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓BHCrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓BBUCrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓AVAHrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓APOGrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓AKANrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✓AIRrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26
- ✕ADCrange call · 2026-09-25 · missSep 26
- ✓ELPWrange call · 2026-09-25 · hitSep 26