AMDNMSbullHYPER-GROWTHjudged on execution & valuation
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ·
$521.95
▼-17.74 (-3.29%)
Jul 25, 2026 · 2:37 PM ET 15-min delayed
Mkt cap$851.09B
P/E · fwd175.2 · 38.2
Div yieldNone
Beta 1y3.07
Volume27.09M0.80× avg
52-wk range -10.7%149585
The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
Overseas lean+1.27%
FrankfurtAMD+4.38%⏱
MéxicoAMD*+2.73%⏱
ZurichAMD0.00%⏱
StockholmAMD0.00%⏱
London0QZD-0.75%⏱
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public
Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None are due yet, so there's no hit-rate to show: this builds in the open, not behind the paywall.
8
bands logged
3
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.
Price action
Price & quote
Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.
The readUnder pressurefact
Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.
◆ Golden cross50-day sits above the 200-day — bullish long-term structure.
Tap & drag the chart for daily OHLCV · 0 sessions · prev close $539.69 (dashed)
Open●
$546.91
Prev close●
$539.69
Volume●
27.09M
avg 33.85M
Rel. volume◐
0.80×
below normal
Market cap●
$851.09B
Shares out●
1.63B
float 1.62B
Day range
$518.01$549.00
52-week range ◐
$149.22$584.73
-10.7% from high+249.8% above low
The QTick signal
QTick proprietary signal
A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.
~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).
Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.
4 bull / 2 bear factors
+9
net · moderate
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net +9●
Analyst moves90d+5 pts
3 analyst upgrade(s) in 90d
Earnings4 quarters+3 pts
latest EPS beat by 6%
Insider flow120d-1 pts
net insider selling ($153,223,150 across 72 sell(s)) in 120d
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d+1 pts
7d sentiment elevated (87/100)
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
2 institutional holder(s) added/opened last quarter (demoted — validated negative IC, not scored (QUANT_SIGNAL.md))
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●
Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching
Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●
NVDACompetitor-0.9%
TSMSupplier-2.9%
AVGOPeer-2.7%
MUSupplier-7.0%
INTCCompetitor-7.9%
Where the reads agree
Cross-category read
A decorrelated view across the categories already scored elsewhere on this page — where they agree, where they conflict, and how lopsided the split is. Not a new signal, a different angle on ones that already exist.
Category reads n=7 categories voting
Streetleans up
Eventleans up
Positioningleans down
Qualityleans up
Valueleans down
Trendleans up
Riskleans down n=5
4 lean up, 3 lean down — modal read: bull.
Where they conflict
Street leans up while Risk leans down.
Trend leans up while Risk leans down.
Street leans up while Positioning leans down.
3 of 7 weighted reads lean the other way — minority weight share 18%.
↳ In detail
A pattern, not a validated signal
This regroups categories the page already scores elsewhere into one cross-category view — it does not add a new tally. Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar.
Section readQTICK net read
n/a
4 bull / 2 bear factors
uncalibrated prior · not a forecast
Our overall read, built from every factor above and shown with the full breakdown.
Red-Flag X-Ray
Accounting quality · red-flag scan
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Section readRed-Flag X-Ray
A
integrity 0–100 · 7-test battery
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks. 80+ is clean; a 'watch' item is minor; a 'critical' flag is serious.
Odds & pullback risk
Setup & odds
Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.
The readSkews downsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast
How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.
Upside vs downside · 12m ◐
Upside 44.8%54.4% Downside
Skew favours downside · base rate 50/50
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 54% of cases (n=4,824) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast. · n=4,824
Expected move · 1wk◐±—
Upside target◐$541.30 +3.7% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop◐$510.31 -2.2% · level, not a call
Reward : risk◐1.7 : 1
BullClose above $541 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $510 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk ◐
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 82% of cases (n=5,172).
1.32×the segment norm — 82% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=5,172 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d◐59% up · 41% down same cell as the pullback read · n=5,172 · flat outcomes fall in neither leg — a base rate, not a call
Conditioned on◐neutral · high vol · pos momentum the matched historical cell
1.32× the large unconditional rate
price is at the modeled bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met) — risk word capped at In line
tape state: neutral
↳ In detail
How to read the odds
This is an empirical base rate: across 25 years of point-in-time history, stocks in this same state (segment, tape phase, volatility, momentum) pulled back this often. The multiple against the segment norm is the comparable number — recent-era levels run hot versus the long grid, so weight the multiple over the bare %. It doesn't predict timing.
The structure under the price ●
Support band●$477.22 – $519.34 -0.5% from spot · level, not a call
s1●$510.31 basis
pivot low●$498.15 basis
pivot low●$495.35 basis
~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational
Bottom confirmation●1 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 0/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears
Capitulation flush, then quiet●not yet
Selling volume dried up●not yet
A higher low printed●in
Back above the 20-day line●not yet
Momentum diverging up●not yet
Heaviest volume on an up day●not yet
85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational
Trend & technical structure
Trend & technicals
The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.
The readUptrend intactwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact
Moving averages set the direction; RSI and the bands tell you whether the move has gone too far.
Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day●+70.8%
Momentum, bands & levels
↳ In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
ProPattern outcomes · derived analysisunlocked
Do these patterns even work?
Derived · what patterns actually did
Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.
The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits
How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.
Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
UptrendBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.8%n=1,090,143
forward win-rate47.1%n=514,097
forward win-rate47.8%n=162,038
slope +0.07 over 40 bars
Spinning topBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate49.1%n=188,311
forward win-rate49.1%n=88,673
forward win-rate49.8%n=28,185
small body, shadows both sides
Bearish haramiBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.0%n=182,270
forward win-rate47.2%n=85,733
forward win-rate47.3%n=27,091
small body inside prior bullish
Double topBarely beats chance
forward win-rate49.6%n=1,168,113
forward win-rate50.7%n=549,286
forward win-rate52.4%n=174,367
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Head and shouldersBarely beats chance
forward win-rate49.4%n=481,332
forward win-rate50.6%n=226,511
forward win-rate51.5%n=71,943
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Falling wedgeBarely beats chance
forward win-rate49.5%n=415,367
forward win-rate50.0%n=195,061
forward win-rate50.5%n=62,069
falling & converging — bullish
Snapshot as of 2026-07-25
↳ In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.
Momentum & performance
Momentum / performance
Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.
The readMarket leaderwhere it sitsRS percentile vs market
How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. Strong, rising momentum tends to persist.
Trailing returns
1-month◐+3.8%
3-month◐+76.8%
6-month◐+112.7%
Year-to-date◐+141.5%
1-year◐+240.2%
12-1 momentum◐+227.6%
Relative strength vs S&P 500
97
RS-rank percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)◐+66.38
↳ In detail
What relative strength tells you
RS-rank 97 means AMD has outpaced 97% of the market over the trailing year. High and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor — leaders tend to keep leading until they don't.
Risk profile
Risk
Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.
The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Size positions to these.
6.5%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 9.3% for its segment
Low drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 0.7× the rate of the ADV-Q5 mega segment — observational, never a sell.
Beta · 1-year◐
3.07
more sensitive than market
Beta · 3-year◐
2.28
Realized vol · 30d◐
71.1%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y●
-27.8%
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits0.7×
LowHigh
vs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
6.5%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 9.3% for its segment
Max drawdown, trailing year●-0.28 driver
Distance from 52-week high●-0.11 driver
Parkinson range volatility●0.48 driver
Log price (level)●6.26 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this ADV-Q5 mega segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars
Neutral tape1/100
SettledKnifing
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
−15.8%a 1-in-200 day for this name — 1.3× what a normal curve expects
↳ In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 3.07 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~3.07% move here. Realized vol of 71% and a 28% worst-case 1-year drawdown frame how much patience a position needs. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.
Failure modes
QTick
Data not available.
ProMacro sensitivity · derived analysisunlocked
How rates push this name
Derived · rates & regime
The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.
The readFalls with rateswhere it sitsrate-beta · winsorized
How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.
Sensitivity to 10Y yield ●
Per +1% in the 10Y yield+1.3%
−120+12
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations●504 rolling window
Fit · r²●n/a
OLS of daily returns on changes in FRED DGS10 over 504 observations. Low-confidence betas (short N or weak r²) defer to a sector prior rather than print a spurious number.
Behaviour around the macro calendar ●
CPI · vs a typical dayn=370.8×
FOMC · vs a typical dayn=370.9×
NFP · vs a typical dayn=381.1×
PCE · vs a typical dayn=370.7×
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime ◔
Vol percentile · 1y◔n/a
Valuation
Valuation
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.
The readPremium valuationwhere it sitsown-history bands where covered · absolute bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered175.2×Rich
Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profit38.2×Rich
PEG ratio◐P/E adjusted for growth — under 1 is cheap7.13Rich
Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield0.57%Rich
Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the contemporaneous risk-free rate-4.15%Spread
Dividend yield●Annual indicated cash dividend as a % of price0.00%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered24.6×Rich
Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the books13.51×Rich
EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earnings116.8×Rich
EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flow126.1×Rich
FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market value0.79%Rich
P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median 103.4×73th pctRich
P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median 9.0×98th pctRich
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
NVDACompetitor-0.9%
TSMSupplier-2.9%
AVGOPeer-2.7%
MUSupplier-7.0%
INTCCompetitor-7.9%
Section readValuation
Premium valuation
own-history bands where covered · absolute bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
Fundamentals & quality
Fundamentals / quality
How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.
The readReturns below capital costwhere it sitsreported-tax ROIC vs stored WACC estimate
Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.
Scale & growth
Revenue · TTM◔Total sales over the last 12 months$37.45BScale
EPS · TTM◔Profit earned per share$3.05Profit
Net margin◔Cents of profit kept per $1 of sales12.5%OK
Revenue growth◔Sales vs a year ago+34.3%Strong
EPS growth◔Profit-per-share vs a year ago+165.0%Strong
Margin trajectory◔Are profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a
Returns & balance sheet
ROE◔Profit generated on shareholders' equity6.9%Weak
ROIC●Reported-tax NOPAT ÷ average opening and closing gross-debt capital5.0%Weak
WACC●Estimated blended cost of debt and equity21.3%Hurdle
ROIC − WACC●Return on capital above or below its funding cost-16.4%Weak
Incremental ROIC · ~3y●Change in NOPAT ÷ positive capital added over about three years+22.5%Strong
Gross / Op margin◔Profitability before & after operating costs50% / 11%OK
Free cash flow◔Cash left after running & investing$6.74BStrong
Cash self-funding◔Self-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnSelf-fundingCash
Debt / Equity◔Gross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeable0.06Strong
Current ratio◔Can it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthy2.85Strong
Last filed 2026-07-25
Section readQuality
Returns below capital cost
reported-tax ROIC vs stored WACC estimate
Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.
ProCredit & safety · derived analysisunlocked
Distance from insolvency
Derived · structural default
Not the debt total — the model-implied distance from default. A two-equation structural model solved per name, plus a cross-sectional solvency rank.
The readSolventwhere it sitspercentile vs solvency universe
How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.
99.96%12-month survival read
None of 8,170 historical observations in this bucket went bankrupt within 12 months — the served 0.04% is a conservative statistical floor, never a claimed zero.
empirical delisting record · out-of-time AUC 0.90 · a base rate, not a rating
8.97
σ to default
0.04%model-implied probability of default ●
Filing-forensics flags
0/4
SafeGreyDistress
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (r = n/a, T = 1y, asset vol from —)
Structural snapshot as of 2026-07-25
Distance-to-default band ●
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Debt-service capacity
Interest coverage●28.2× operating income / absolute interest expense
Long-term debt / assets●0.0% as filed; distinct from Merton D/V
↳ In detail
How to read these two ratios
The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.
Altman solvency ●
Altman Z-Score●37.4 Safe
↳ In detail
Why a percentile, not a number
The absolute Z-Score is shown whenever its filing inputs exist. The cross-sectional percentile is a separate field and stays n/a until a current universe rank is on file.
Forensic accounting ●
CleanNo validated forensic-accounting flags fired for this snapshot.
ProDilution radar · derived analysisunlocked
Are your shares being diluted?
Derived · ownership erosion
Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.
The read—where it sitsdilution percentile vs peers
How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.
5-year share-count CAGR ●
Share-count CAGR not covered for this name.
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
LeastMedianMost
0percentile100
Peer percentile●58th above median
Stock comp / revenue◔n/a not covered
Stock comp / OCF◔operating cash flow46.3% latest fiscal year
Gross buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases / market value
Net buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.
The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time
Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.
65%of names with this beat profile beat againn=40,038 · observational
Earnings in 9 days. This name beat the estimate and still fell in 42% of its last 24prints — a beat isn't a green light here.
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidancebeats most quarters, by thin margins n=8
Trailing beat rate●63% beat 5–6 of the last 8 · n=8
65%of names that beat 5–6 of the last 8 went on to beat again — 1.04× the segment average (cohort record since 2000, not this stock alone)n=40,038 · observational
42%of the time it beat the estimate but fell anywayn=24 · observational
0%of the time it missed the estimate but rose anywayn=24 · observational
Avg reaction on a beat●+1.8% n=19
Avg reaction on a miss●-2.4% n=1
Implied vs realized move●— insufficient options history
↳ In detail
How to read the habit
The beat probability is an empirical base rate — names with this trailing profile beat again that share of the time, graded out-of-time against climatology. It is a cohort fact, not a forecast of this specific print.
Smart money & positioning
Smart money
Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.
The readAccumulatingwhere it sitspositioning band · not a vote
Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.
Holders
Institutional●74.1%
Insider●0.4%
Institutional flow●Accumulating
Fund concentration●—
Activist stake●None on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net●—
10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float◔2.5%
Short interest · 30d Δ◔-15.0%
Options positioning
Put/call · OI●1.02
Put/call · volume●0.67
Implied move●next exp.±4.6%
IV skew (25Δ)●+3.3% put-skewed
↳ In detail
What positioning is whispering
Institutions are still adding. A put/call of 1.02 and put-skewed IV — leaning defensive.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional●
FilerSourceActionValueDate
Papermaster Mark DChief Technology Officer & EVPInsiderSell330000017 Jul
Papermaster Mark DChief Technology Officer & EVPInsiderSell50910017 Jul
Papermaster Mark DChief Technology Officer & EVPInsiderSell017 Jul
Papermaster Mark DChief Technology Officer & EVPInsiderSell320000017 Jun
Papermaster Mark DChief Technology Officer & EVPInsiderSell50910017 Jun
13F gurus · last quarter ●
Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio)Added+1.3M sh · $263M
Renaissance TechnologiesAdded+0.2M sh · $43M
ProSmart-money flow · derived analysisunlocked
Conviction, not just transactions
Derived · who's actually buying
Anyone can list the filings. We weight insider buys by cluster and seniority into a conviction intensity, and read institutional footprint as a velocity.
The readFunds accumulatingwhere it sitsintensity, not a probability
Insider buys, weighted by how senior the buyer is and whether several buy at once — plus how fast big funds are moving in or out.
Insider conviction intensity ●
Clustered exec buys · n/an/a / 18.44
018.44
Intensity index — explicitly not a probability
Distinct exec buyers
n/a
Buy clusters · last 90d
90d agotoday
Institutional footprint · QoQ ●
+112new fundsexited−261
Net registered funds -149 this quarter
Institutional velocity●Accumulating
↳ In detail
What the flow is saying
No clustered exec buying this window — conviction reads low. Funds are accumulating: a net -149 registered holders quarter-over-quarter. Conviction is intensity, not a forecast.
Options microstructure
Options microstructure
Computed over the stored full chain — where dealer hedging concentrates.
The readBreak-pronewhere it sitsmarket-structure band
The busiest option strikes can pull the price toward them or speed moves up. They act as support and resistance.
Open-interest by strike · gamma walls ◐
Puts OI (k)Calls OI (k)
269
560
4082
179
557.5
1553
1418
555
1486
308
552.5
674
1659
550
4966WALL
646
547.5
519
751
545
1835
213
542.5
455
883
540
2759
268
537.5
1427
962
535
1850
452
532.5
4613
1751
530
1769
426
527.5
449
WALL1897
525
617
276
522.5
1567
spot $541.41 max pain $515 (-4.9%)
Dealer regime & expected move
Gamma exposure (GEX)
Negative
short
Max pain●$515.00 (-4.9%)
Put/call · OI●1.02
Call wall◐$550.00 resistance
Put wall◐$525.00 support
Expected move · session◐±3.6%
Expected move · week◐±8.0%
Break-proneCall-heavyShort gamma
↳ In detail
What the options are saying
Positioning is top-heavy with calls — about 30.6K contracts of call open interest against 12.4K of puts across the strikes nearest spot (chain-wide P/C 1.02). That's a stack of upside bets sitting as overhead supply: $550 is the call-OI wall — where dealer hedging tends to pin or repel price. Dealers are short gamma, so their hedging amplifies moves: max pain matters less here, and a push through the $550 / $525 walls can accelerate rather than fade. The chain is pricing about ±8.0% (≈ $43.42) over the coming week.
observational · not advice
ProGamma map · derived analysisunlocked
Where dealers pin the tape
Derived · dealer hedging · marquee
Open interest is free everywhere. What it does — whether dealer hedging dampens or amplifies a 1% move, and the walls price gets magnetized to — is the derived read.
The readHedging amplifies moveswhere it sitsdealer-positioning band
Whether options dealers' hedging is calming the price or likely to amplify the next move, and the levels it's drawn to.
Support / resistance rails ◐
call wall · resistance$500
spot$541.41
put wall · support$500
Dealer regime ◐
Short gamma — dealers amplify moves
Net dealer gamma◐−$39.32M per 1% move
ATM implied vol◐0.6%
Expected move · 1d◐±3.6%
Expected move · 1w◐±8.0%
OTM IV skew (25Δ)◐+3.3% put-skewed
↳ In detail
What the gamma map is saying
Dealers are short gamma, so their hedging amplifies moves — a push through $500.00 or $500.00 tends to accelerate, not fade. Net gamma of −$39.32M is the dollar hedging effect per 1% move — the consequence a raw chain never tells you.
AMD is +1.0% ahead of the peer average (-4.28%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together●
partnercompetitorsupplier
Customer momentum
The customer chain
Data not available.
What's moving the stock
The Story · news & social
The headlines actually moving the stock, with the crowd's mood shown next to each.
The readCrowd mixedfactread as contrarian context
What moved the stock, plus how bullish the crowd is — which tends to be loudest right at the turning points.
Latest headlines 0▲ 0▼ of 50●
Neutral
Got $100? 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Memory ETF to Buy Right Now.
NEWSMotley Fool·2h ago
Neutral
Bank of America revamps AMD stock price target for 2026
NEWSTheStreet·3h ago
Neutral
Is Riot Platforms (RIOT) Too Pricey For Its AI Data Center Push?
NEWSSimply Wall St.·18h ago
Neutral
Texas Instruments vs. Qualcomm: One Pays Out 94% of Earnings. The Better Dividend Chip Stock Is Clear.
NEWSBarchart·20h ago
Social sentiment ◐
Per-platform sentiment data not available
What this name did from here
Time machine
Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.
The readHigher than a year agofact
The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.
Look-backs · vs $539.69 today
3 months ago●$305.33 +76.8% to today
6 months ago●$259.68 +107.8% to today
1 year ago●$158.65 +240.2% to today
3 years ago●$110.95 +386.4% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
↳ In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
ProRisk case · derived analysisunlocked
The risk case
The case against
Model and base-rate evidence for avoid risk, position size, lottery profile, cash runway, event drift, dividend reliability and filing revisions — plus a live crowding descriptor when its three inputs agree.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsmodel estimate plus calibrated base-rate surfaces
The measured case against the stock: model risk, position cap, lottery profile, runway, event drift, dividend evidence, filing revisions and crowding when covered.
No lottery signal — trailing-21d max daily return is within the normal range for its cohort (large).
Cash runway · non-burner
Positive free cash flow — burner runway risk does not apply. Non-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).
Post-earnings drift · reaction vs sigma
Move already priced●z>4 after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero
Move already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.
Latest earnings reaction●+23.4% 2026-05-05
Daily sigma (21d)●4.48% baseline volatility used for z-score
Reaction z-bucket●z>4 |reaction| ÷ daily sigma
Newey-West t-stat●-0.06 uncertainty statistic; not sample size
↳ In detail
How post-earnings drift works
After an earnings reaction, price drift over the following 63 trading days depends on how large the initial move was. When the jump exceeds 4× the stock's daily sigma, most of the drift edge has been extracted — the market has efficiently repriced. Smaller reactions leave a measurable drift spread (+3.21pp reference at z<1, Newey-West t=7.5).
Dividend reliability
No dividend on file — trap / covered classification does not apply. non_payer
Filing restatements
no_restatements_in_lookback
Calibration scorecard
Auditable track record
Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.
8
calls logged track record builds as calls resolve (3/8)
Resolved●
3
awaiting first results
Open calls●
5
tracked, unresolved
AMD track record●
building
published once resolved
Section readTrack record
Building
Our public hit-rate, misses included — a track record only means something if it can't be cherry-picked.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Price & Signals · Deep dive · QTick