Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) — Computer Hardware. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SMCI fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 17.68M · 3-mo avg 49.23M

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$39.62
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 2.3% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$58–59
center $58.78 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.26
8.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.64×
52-week range$19.48 – $58.78
Below high since 2015-67.2% · $122.90 high
Risk / reward3.34 : 1
Plan stop$33.87
Max pain$35.00 options cluster
RSI 1458.8 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags3 review
Earnings multiple6.9× fwd · 11.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past13th pctile · 20.2× median
Free cash flow yield-29.9% · burning cash

Trading heavier than its own normal, price down 4.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
58.8
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$33.34
above the line · fires near $33.56
Bollinger
$34.86
no lower pierce · fires near $34.30
VWAP 20
$37.90
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $37.87
Entry level
$39.62
below the model level
Put wall
$35.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
-0.48
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.64×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
16.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.34
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 33 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file