International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) — $236.31 +0.31%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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IBM fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 7.34M · Avg 11.37M
IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation$236.31+0.31%Pre-market$236.54+0.10%

WAIT.

The business passes the quality checks — the entry price doesn't.

2 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
0net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
2 of 6 aligned — not yet
Quality is there; waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.1× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$235.13
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$249–253
center $251.32 · basis · round + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.80
4.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.65× · 7.34M vs 11.37M avg
52-week range$199.19 – $332.46
Below high since 2015-28.9% · $332.46 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.1
Plan stop$219.92
Max pain$225.00 options cluster
RSI 1450.3 fires under 35 · fires near $200.92
Forensic flags0 clean
What-if price
$236.31
$192.07 · -18.7%-18.7%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+4.6% · $247.11+4.6%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
50.3
fires under 35 · fires near $200.92
vs 50-day
$256.68
below the line
Bollinger
$199.68
no lower pierce · fires near $195.94
VWAP 20
$216.84
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $216.68
Entry level
$235.13
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$215.00
OI strike below · fires near $215.85
MACD
+3.63
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.65×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.61
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
21 Oct 2026
· in 71 days
Next dividend
2.86% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed