Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Cloud & Infrastructure Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 38.15M · 3-mo avg 29.97M

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

MSFTMicrosoft Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 7 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~10% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$507.95
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$546–552
center $549.20 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$22.04
4.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 67% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.75×
52-week range$349.20 – $553.72
Below high since 2015-7.1% · $555.45 high
Risk / reward0.86 : 1
Plan stop$477.79
Max pain$495.00 options cluster
RSI 1463.3 fires under 35 · fires near $455.29
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple21.8× fwd · 28.7× trailing
P/E vs its own past30th pctile · 33.6× median
Free cash flow yield1.8% · of market value

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 3.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

0 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
63.3
fires under 35 · fires near $455.29
vs 50-day
●
$475.40
above the line · fires near $479.41
Bollinger
●
$486.04
no lower pierce · fires near $484.94
VWAP 20
●
$500.93
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $500.75
Entry level
●
$507.95
level below · fires near $513.01
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.80
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.75×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
0.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$10.95
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 23 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.91
ex-date 2026-11-19