Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — $506.06 +1.21%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

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MSFT fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 31.18M · Avg 41.28M
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation$506.06+1.21%Pre-market$505.89-0.03%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$503.53
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$546–555
center $550.24 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$17.16
3.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs 20-day avg0.76× · 31.18M vs 41.28M avg
52-week range$349.20 – $553.72
Below high since 2015-8.9% · $555.45 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.1
Plan stop$459.57
Max pain$457.50 options cluster
RSI 1479.1 overbought
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$506.06
$404.85 · -20.0%-20.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.4% · $523.22+3.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
79.1
overbought
vs 50-day
$408.59
above the line · fires near $410.54
Bollinger
$333.91
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
$436.43
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $435.84
Entry level
$503.53
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$460.00
OI strike below · fires near $461.78
MACD
+10.49
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.76×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$18.05
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
28 Oct 2026
· in 78 days
Next dividend
USD 0.91
ex-date 2026-08-20
prices 15-min delayed