Deep dive · NYSE: TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Positioning and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +6 over 30d, a moderate reading on a dispersion of 0.09, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
insider flow, quality / value, analyst moves vote up. 4 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
1 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Positioning against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −12.3%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
FrankfurtTSFA—⏱MéxicoTSMN—⏱London0LCV—⏱ZurichTSM—⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Buy
+56% to the average target
95% buy · 5% hold · 0% sell
mean target $587
mean target $587
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $431.37 · -13.0%
200-day $400.03 · -6.1%
200-day $400.03 · -6.1%
Earnings
In 67 days
14 Jan 2027 · options imply ±9.2%
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
cohort P(beat) 80% · n=36,342
Valuation
16.1× forward
48th of its own five-year range
5yr median 25×
FCF yield 50.96%
FCF yield 50.96%
Dividend
1.00%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 4 clear
beta 2.16 · vol 55% ann.
worst drawdown -27%
worst drawdown -27%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does274 chars
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
NYSE · USDSemiconductors
$375.44+22.34 · +6.33%CLOSED · vol 23.80M
52-week range↑ 41% off low · ↓ 23.0% off high
$266.82now $375.44$487.47
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 4 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.03SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 9/9
Piotroski F-score 9 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.51×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.20
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$1.70T
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$1.46T
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
38th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
90 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 4 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.03Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.70M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.17long-term debt 0.17× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 9/9Piotroski F-score 9 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 4 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026EXCELLENT · 100/100
Business quality
45% net margin, 32% return on equity, +32% revenue growth, and capital earning 47% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
100 / 100EXCELLENT
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
44.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
59.9%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
50.8%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
31.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
37.2pp
Earns 47% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
52.7%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-18.0%
3 months-10.3%
6 months-8.8%
Year to date+23.5%
1 year+27.9%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+31.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+46.4%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+57.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 47%
47 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsOct 15, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
80%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
40%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
1.00%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,308,676
21d47%0.0%613,759
63d47%-0.9%195,225
slope -0.12 over 40 bars
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%518,305
21d50%0.0%243,845
63d51%+0.2%77,142
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,001,589
21d49%0.0%470,024
63d52%+0.2%147,634
three troughs ≈ equal
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%509,606
21d49%0.0%239,810
63d50%+0.1%76,130
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%527,677
21d48%0.0%247,592
63d49%0.0%78,062
flat support, falling resistance
Gap up · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d42%-1.2%185,691
21d42%-2.3%87,367
63d42%-4.6%27,599
opened 7.8% above prior close
0348TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $375.44, 16.1× forward earnings, RSI 36, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $431.37 · 200-day $400.03. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 6.33% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
36
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.7%
$17.49
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-6.30
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position4% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$407.98
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$418.71
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
14 Jan 2027 · in 67 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 17 Oct; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
High1.31× segment rate · n=406
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 87% of cases (n=406).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$360 – $3742 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $371.72, S1 at $368.69.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
83 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-0.73pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$65.68
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months16.1×5yr median 25×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported24.3×48th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.41
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.5×5yr median 9.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.4×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay0.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off0.3×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value50.96%
0 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$373.56In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetMax pain + round + sma 200
$399.01$395–$403
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$338.58risk $34.99/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.73:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+14.9%
short-term trend line · $431.37
To the 200-day
+6.5%
primary trend line · $400.03
To the put wall
+6.5%
heaviest put open interest · $400.00
To the call wall
-1.4%
heaviest call open interest · $370.00
To the composer's target
+6.3%
Max pain + round + sma 200 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $399.01
To the composer's stop
-9.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $338.58
To the 52-week high
+29.8%
highest print of the past year · $487.47
To the 52-week low
-28.9%
lowest print of the past year · $266.82
Options-implied week ±9.2%
$341.01 – $409.87
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$357.95 – $392.93
±$17.49 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $373.56 · stop $338.58 · target $399.01, a 0.73:1 ratio. The composer flagged: low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 8, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-13 · Chain · Nov 8, 2026
Max pain+5.9%
$397.50
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.91
52% calls
48% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.74
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $34.43
±9.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$370.00CALL1,571
$375.00CALL1,052
$375.00PUT714
$360.00PUT711
$380.00PUT689
$390.00PUT680
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-13CallsPutsMax pain $397.50
335
$395.00
58376
$392.50
102188
$390.00
6800
$387.50
113342
$385.00
492129
$382.50
386462
$380.00
6890
$377.50
2691k
$375.00
71493
$372.50
1852k
$370.00
4500
$367.50
19269
$365.00
1910
$362.50
23799
$360.00
71136
$355.00
553
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$487.47+29.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$370.00-1.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$397.50+5.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$431.37+14.9%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$400.00+6.5%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +6
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 15%, short interest is 0.08% of float, and 9 analysts average $587.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+6MODERATE · 30d
4 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
5 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
4 of the prior 4 quarters beat
Insider flow120D · TIMING
+2
net insider buying ($1,377,073 across 60 buys) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (9/9)
Signal
4 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +6 over 30d, a moderate reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
4 of 5 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.09 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street9 covering firms
Consensus rating9 ANALYSTS
Buy
95% buy · 5% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 9 covering firms.
Mean price target+56%
$587
$440now $375$1000
A $440–$1,000 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$23.39
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Bernstein$600↑46/100
Barclays$670↑51/100
DA Davidson$500→53/100
Needham$560↑55/100
Barclays$665↑51/100
Stifel$515↑52/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
15.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.08%
Rising — shares short changed +5.5% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Dollar volume (ADV)100th PCTILE
$4.22B/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Buying conviction99th PCTILE
26.6 / 36.3
Blends how many executives bought, how large the trades were and how clustered in time — rather than raw ownership percentages.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Yuan Lipen · VPBuy$71,490—01 Nov
Lu Lee-Chung · VPBuy$3,890—07 Oct
Lu Chin-Sheng · VPBuy$2,858—07 Oct
Tien Bor-Zen · VPBuy$556—07 Oct
Tien Bor-Zen · VPBuy$3,176—07 Oct
Mii Yuh-Jier · EVP and Co-COOBuy$5,399—07 Oct
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+6.33%
TSM rose +6.33% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Taiwan Imposes Strict Short-Selling Limits Amid AI Stock Selloff; TSM Faces Market Pressure - GuruFocus” (GuruFocus).
News tone · 7-day—
48 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
6h agoTSM Stock at 21x After a 30% Chip Sell-Off [2026] - shattered.ioshattered.ionot scored
FriTaiwan Imposes Strict Short-Selling Limits Amid AI Stock Selloff; TSM Faces Market Pressure - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
FriTSM stock rallies as Nvidia reportedly turns to TSMC for advanced memory chips - can it challenge Samsung, - The Economic TimesThe Economic Timesnot scored
FriTaiwan Semiconductor Stocks Jump 7.45% as Taiwan Slashes Short Selling After Rout - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
FriTaiwan Semiconductor Just Won Big in The Midterms - 24/7 Wall St.24/7 Wall St.not scored
FriWhy did TSM stock drop 10%, and why is it bouncing? The midterm chip rout and Taiwan's short-selling curbs - NacionaleNacionalenot scored
FriTaiwan Semiconductor Stock Price Today | NYSE: TSM Live - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
FriTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Stock (TSM) Opened Up by 7.51% on Nov 6: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKeyTradingKeynot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
5 of 6 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0520 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.16, 55% annual volatility, a -27% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−12.3%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−22.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-27.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.16
Moves about 2.2× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
55%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure68
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
4.9%0.5× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 6.3% against a 11.0% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.16 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record20 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
40 logged
40 calls logged on this name, 20 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksSEMICONDUCTORS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 18 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+1.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NVDASupplier$186.64+2.78%
AVGOSupplier$293.69+0.74%
AMDSupplier$449.04+11.04%
MUPeer$690.00+5.12%
TSMWFSupplier$17.240.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=40
1.13×
On these days it moves about 1.1× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=42
1.01×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=41
1.28×
On these days it moves about 1.3× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=41
1.01×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 8, 2026
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +2.4% · Two weeks later +3.8% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, TSM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 85 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, TSM moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedChip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TSM moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Chip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +4.0% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, TSM moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 4.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedChip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TSM moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Inflation (CPI) is due in 2 days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedChip stocks are priced on growth and sell off when rates rise.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TSM moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +3.0% · Two weeks later +2.7% · Rose on 27 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, TSM moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 2.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually hurts when hiring comes in stronger than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +2.9% · Two weeks later +2.8% · Rose on 27 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, TSM moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 2.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableThe supply-momentum read covered this name but produced no priced customers, so there is nothing to weight.
Connections18 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 18 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
SNPS · Partnerpartner+2.31%Rumored · manual
AVGO · Suppliersupplier+0.74%Rumored · 10K
ASX · Suppliersupplier+6.43%Rumored · manual
ASML · Customercustomer+5.02%Rumored · manual
BOSCH.DE · Partnerpartnernot pricedRumored · manual
SMTC · Suppliersupplier+12.75%Rumored · manual
AAPL · Suppliersupplier-0.52%Rumored · manual
NVDA · Suppliersupplier+2.78%Rumored · 10K
005930.KS · Competitorcompetitor-6.35%Rumored · manual
CDNS · Partnerpartner+2.73%Rumored · manual
NVTS · Suppliersupplier+9.54%Rumored · manual
MXL · Suppliersupplier+10.99%Rumored · manual
6723.T · Manufacturerpartner-0.51%Rumored · manual
ASML · Suppliersupplier+5.02%Confirmed · 10K
FORM · Customercustomer+13.04%Rumored · manual
AMD · Suppliersupplier+11.04%Rumored · manual
KN · Suppliersupplier+3.10%Rumored · manual
NVMI · Suppliersupplier+11.73%Rumored · manual
1 of 18 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Who depends on it
What it depends on
Named competitors
005930.KSCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.