Apple Inc. (AAPL) — $308.26 −1.53%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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AAPL fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 44.78M · Avg 56.85M
AAPLApple Inc.$308.26-1.53%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 8 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$306.72
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$342–347
center $344.27 · basis · bb upper + high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.00
2.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.79× · 44.78M vs 56.85M avg
52-week range$223.78 – $344.57
Below high since 2015-10.5% · $344.57 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.0
Plan stop$287.88
Max pain$312.50 options cluster
RSI 1443.1 fires under 35 · fires near $292.62
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$308.26
$288.08 · -6.5%-6.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+2.9% · $317.26+2.9%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
43.1
fires under 35 · fires near $292.62
vs 50-day
$309.33
at the line
Bollinger
$299.91
no lower pierce · fires near $297.54
VWAP 20
$321.13
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$306.72
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$297.50
OI strike below · fires near $298.93
MACD
-3.17
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.79×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$9.42
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
29 Oct 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 78 days
Next dividend
0.35% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed