ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — Semiconductor Equipment & Materials. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ASML fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 801.8K · 3-mo avg 1.58M

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

ASMLASML Holding N.V.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileOKPCE inflation days · ~13% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$1,735.22
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$1,984–2,010
center $1,997.38 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.62×
52-week range$935.41 – $1,999.96
Below high since 2015-12.8% · $1,999.96 high
Risk / reward2.24 : 1
Plan stop$1,630.71
Max pain—
RSI 1454.6 fires under 35 · fires near $1,513.21
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple29.6× fwd · 60.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past99th pctile · 38.2× median
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 1.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 44% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
54.6
fires under 35 · fires near $1,513.21
vs 50-day
●
$1,717.25
above the line · fires near $1,733.45
Bollinger
●
$1,581.23
no lower pierce · fires near $1,562.65
VWAP 20
●
$1,678.13
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $1,678.02
Entry level
✓
$1,735.22
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+11.89
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.62×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
0.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$52.26
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-14
in 13 sessions
Next dividend
0.52% yld
no ex-date on file