ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — $1,733.48 −0.43%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

ASMLpeers & supply-chain relationships

ASML fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.11M · Avg 1.94M
ASMLASML Holding N.V.$1,733.48-0.43%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

2 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
2 of 5 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$1,724.81
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$1,745–1,783
center $1,764.09 · basis · daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.57× · 1.11M vs 1.94M avg
52-week range$716.20 – $1,999.96
Below high since 2015-13.3% · $1,999.96 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$1,571.75
Max pain
RSI 1451.4 fires under 35 · fires near $1,447.55
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$1,733.48
$1,440.22 · -16.9%-16.9%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+8.8% · $1,886.54+8.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
51.4
fires under 35 · fires near $1,447.55
vs 50-day
$1,761.29
below the line
Bollinger
$1,566.18
no lower pierce · fires near $1,537.36
VWAP 20
$1,712.70
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $1,711.49
Entry level
$1,724.81
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+6.31
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.57×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$76.53
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
14 Oct 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 64 days
Next dividend
0.52% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed