Deep dive · NYSE: LEN-B
Lennar Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Lennar Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Positioning and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.31, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
insider flow vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Positioning against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −7.9%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — LEN-B trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $82.24 · -2.1%
200-day $90.49 · -11.0%
200-day $90.49 · -11.0%
Earnings
In 79 days
15 Dec 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Dividend
2.48%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.02 · vol 40% ann.
worst drawdown -39%
worst drawdown -39%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does132 chars
Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder primarily under the Lennar brand in the United States.
NYSE · USDResidential Construction
$80.49+0.61 · +0.76%CLOSED · vol 130.0K
52-week range↑ 8% off low · ↓ 35.9% off high
$74.44now $80.49$125.48
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENT · 1 FLAGGED
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.8 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.78SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
3.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.53%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/9
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills10.70×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.27
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.17
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$2.12B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
53rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
8.83%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
8.83%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.5%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
75%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.78Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -2.08M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.27long-term debt 0.27× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/9Piotroski F-score 3 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 32/100
Business quality
6% net margin, 9% return on equity, -4% revenue growth, and capital earning 8% against a 9% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
32 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
6.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
9.9%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
8.0%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
9.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-0.7pp
Earns 8% on invested capital that costs about 9%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
16th pctile
The balance sheet grew -17% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-3.5%
3 months-9.4%
6 months-6.6%
Year to date-15.8%
1 year-31.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-3.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-44.2%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-26.7%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 33%
33 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 79 DAYS
15 Dec 2026
revenue 8.8 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.48%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.10 over 40 bars
Hammer · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.6%75,485
21d47%-0.7%35,652
63d46%-1.6%11,229
long lower shadow, small body at top
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d44%0.0%344,241
21d46%0.0%162,135
63d47%0.0%51,160
matching lows
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
03
Price & timing
Price $80.49, RSI 50.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $82.24 · 200-day $90.49. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.76% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
50
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.4%
$2.75
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.35
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position58% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$78.83
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$78.44
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
15 Dec 2026 · in 79 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 18 Sept; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,834
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 81% of cases (n=5,834).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$78 – $803 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $80.36, Pivot low at $79.57, S1 at $79.52.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
7 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.46pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-7.11
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported15.2×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.6×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.9×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay7.5×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off763.2×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value0.15%
2 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$80.09In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50
$81.81$81–$82
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$74.58risk $5.51/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.31:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+2.2%
short-term trend line · $82.24
To the 200-day
+12.4%
primary trend line · $90.49
To the composer's target
+1.6%
Daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $81.81
To the composer's stop
-7.3%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $74.58
To the 52-week high
+55.9%
highest print of the past year · $125.48
To the 52-week low
-7.5%
lowest print of the past year · $74.44
A typical day (ATR)
$77.74 – $83.24
±$2.75 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $80.09 · stop $74.58 · target $81.81, a 0.31:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 26%, short interest is 0.16% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Insider flow120D · TIMING
+2
net insider buying ($348,777,941 across 25 buys) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/9)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.31 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
25.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
73.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.16%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Dollar volume (ADV)61st PCTILE
$7.30M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Buying conviction43rd PCTILE
5 / 100
Blends how many executives bought, how large the trades were and how clustered in time — rather than raw ownership percentages.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$43.5M—23 Sep
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$558,460—25 Sep
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$237,732—24 Sep
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$747,739—24 Sep
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$101,027—23 Sep
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC · 10% ownerBuy$14.0M—25 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.76%
LEN-B rose +0.76% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “How (LEN.B) Movements Inform Risk Allocation Models - Stock Traders Daily” (Stock Traders Daily).
News tone · 7-day—
64 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatBerkshire Hathaway buys $136m in Lennar shares - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
SatBerkshire Hathaway buys $136m in Lennar shares By Investing.com - Investing.com NigeriaInvesting.com Nigerianot scored
FriHow (LEN.B) Movements Inform Risk Allocation Models - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
FriLennar Corp-B To Go Ex-Dividend On October 7th, 2026 With 0.5 USD Dividend Per Share - MoomooMoomoonot scored
Fri‘The Housing Supply Just Isn’t There’: Buffett Bought 10% of Lennar the Day After It Cut Guidance - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
FriLennar (LEN) Draws Fresh Attention After $212 Million Stake Increase - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
ThuLennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN.B) Share Price, LEN.B Stock News, LEN.B Share Price & Updates - kalkine.cakalkine.canot scored
WedLennar declares $0.50 quarterly dividend for both share classes - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
053 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.02, 40% annual volatility, a -39% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−7.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−13.2%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-39.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)IN LINE
1.02
Moves about 1.0× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
40%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure45
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/9)TTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.1%0.7× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 6.2% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -39%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 40% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
Our track record3 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
17 logged
17 calls logged on this name, 3 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on LEN-BTHIS NAME
17
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 3.
0610-K disclosed linksRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-157.7% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 157.7% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
DHIPeer$141.51+0.83%
PHMPeer$119.85+1.41%
LENPeer$82.15+0.83%
NVRPeer$6,297.60+1.00%
TOLPeer$137.34+1.04%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Mortgage rates move within the hour and price buyers out.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.4% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 12 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
This is the builders' own production figure.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedMortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
This report is the sector's own sales figure, printed monthly.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, LEN-B moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Mortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Mortgage rates rise on hot inflation and fewer people can afford a new home.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, LEN-B moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower mortgage rates bring buyers back, outweighing the weaker job picture.
Typical for the Residential Construction industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 90 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, LEN-B moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
FDX · Suppliersupplier+2.26%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Customercustomer+0.12%Rumored · manual
TGT · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.