Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) — $151.91 +1.28%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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TOL fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 7, 2026 · 2:29 PM ETVol 96.1K · Avg 1.09M
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.$151.91+1.28%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

0 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+8net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
0 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$149.25
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$164–166
center $165.00 · basis · call wall · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$11.20
7.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.09× · 96.1K vs 1.09M avg
52-week range$122.13 – $168.36
Below high since 2015-11.5% · $169.52 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.7
Plan stop$139.77
Max pain$150.00 options cluster
RSI 1448.9 fires under 35 · fires near $136.26
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$151.91
$125.26 · -17.5%-17.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+7.4% · $163.11+7.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers0 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
48.9
fires under 35 · fires near $136.26
vs 50-day
$149.95
above the line · fires near $151.42
Bollinger
$145.14
no lower pierce · fires near $143.92
VWAP 20
$151.02
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $150.92
Entry level
$149.25
level below · fires near $150.58
Put wall
$130.00
OI strike below · fires near $130.59
MACD
+0.30
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.09×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
6.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.74
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
18 Aug 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 6 days
Next dividend
0.68% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed