Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

TOLpeers & supply-chain relationships

TOL fair-value estimate

TOL earnings history

Qtick
Sign in
Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 1.48M · 3-mo avg 1.05M

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

TOLToll Brothers, Inc.loading…
loading…
QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
loading…
Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$155.55
near a support level · Nov 9
$166–169
near the 52-week high and a round-number price · midpoint $167.43 · Nov 9
±$0.17
±0.1% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
88% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume31% above normal1.31× its 20-day average
Past year's range$123.15 – $168.36lowest to highest price
From its peak7.8% belowpeak $169.52, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.96 to 1$0.96 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$144.80the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$125.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)65.4fires under 35 · fires near $121.72
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit11.4× next year12.6× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 99%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 8.1×
Cash it generates7.1%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
65.4
fires under 35 · fires near $121.72
vs 50-day
●
$138.57
above the line · fires near $139.46
Bollinger
●
$124.98
no lower pierce · fires near $122.37
VWAP 20
●
$143.38
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $143.35
Entry level
✓
$155.55
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$90.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context✓
+1.74
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.31×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.37
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-08
in 20 sessions
Next dividend
0.67% yld
no ex-date on file