Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TOL fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 1.60M · 3-mo avg 946.5K

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

TOLToll Brothers, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 14/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$136.65
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$144–146
center $144.64 · basis · bb upper + call wall + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$7.06
5.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.50×
52-week range$123.15 – $168.36
Below high since 2015-19.0% · $169.52 high
Risk / reward0.91 : 1
Plan stop$129.35
Max pain$140.00 options cluster
RSI 1446.4 fires under 35 · fires near $129.69
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple9.9× fwd · 11.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past79th pctile · 8.0× median
Free cash flow yield8.1% · of market value

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 1.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 59% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
46.4
fires under 35 · fires near $129.69
vs 50-day
✓
$144.40
below the line
Bollinger
●
$129.55
no lower pierce · fires near $128.12
VWAP 20
●
$136.59
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $136.55
Entry level
✓
$136.65
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$145.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context✓
+0.58
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.50×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
4.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.65
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-08
in 51 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.26
ex-date 2026-10-09