PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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PHM fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 2:53 PM ETVol 1.23M · 3-mo avg 1.62M

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

PHMPulteGroup, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 6 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 14/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$117.59
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$124–126
center $125.17 · basis · round + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$5.85
4.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.97×
52-week range$108.49 – $144.50
Below high since 2015-20.9% · $149.47 high
Risk / reward0.65 : 1
Plan stop$111.69
Max pain$122.00 options cluster
RSI 1440.7 fires under 35 · fires near $117.10
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple10.9× fwd · 12.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past96th pctile · 7.8× median
Free cash flow yield7.7% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price up 1.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
40.7
fires under 35 · fires near $117.10
vs 50-day
✓
$125.78
below the line
Bollinger
●
$113.43
no lower pierce · fires near $112.00
VWAP 20
✓
$120.55
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
●
$117.59
level below · fires near $118.74
Put wall
●
$119.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context✓
+0.24
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.97×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.95
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-22
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
0.87% yld
no ex-date on file