Target Corporation (TGT) — Discount Stores. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TGT fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:03 PM ETVol 2.99M · 3-mo avg 4.11M

Target Corporation (TGT)

TGTTarget Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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$157.62
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$164–166
near a heavy call-option level · midpoint $165.00 · Nov 6
±$8.52
±5.4% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
88% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume23% below normal0.77× its 20-day average
Past year's range$83.44 – $170.75lowest to highest price
From its peak41.2% belowpeak $269.45, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.57 to 1$0.57 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$146.88the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$152.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)54.3fires under 35 · fires near $136.31
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit16.6× next year16.5× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 58%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 15.9×
Cash it generates3.9%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
54.3
fires under 35 · fires near $136.31
vs 50-day
●
$156.42
above the line · fires near $157.84
Bollinger
●
$147.02
no lower pierce · fires near $145.66
VWAP 20
●
$154.53
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $154.44
Entry level
✓
$157.62
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$143.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-04
MACD
Context✓
+0.92
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.77×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.37
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-18
in 8 sessions
Next dividend
USD 1.16
ex-date 2026-11-10