NVR, Inc. (NVR) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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NVR fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 24.8K · 3-mo avg 34.1K

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

NVRNVR, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 6/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$6,266.11
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$8,166–8,234
center $8,200.00 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.78× the norm · 52% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.60×
52-week range$5,501.01 – $8,200.00
Below high since 2015-36.8% · $9,964.77 high
Risk / reward6.20 : 1
Plan stop$5,990.52
Max pain—
RSI 1451.4 fires under 35 · fires near $5,849.52
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple15.1× fwd · 16.0× trailing
P/E vs its own past43rd pctile · 13.6× median
Free cash flow yield6.7% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 1.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
51.4
fires under 35 · fires near $5,849.52
vs 50-day
✓
$6,303.62
at the line
Bollinger
●
$6,083.76
no lower pierce · fires near $6,049.66
VWAP 20
●
$6,241.69
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $6,240.84
Entry level
✓
$6,266.11
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-5.57
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.60×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
4.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$137.79
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file