NVR, Inc. (NVR) — Residential Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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NVR fair-value estimate

NVR earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:02 PM ETVol 35.0K · 3-mo avg 41.4K

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

NVRNVR, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$6,306.69
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$6,407–6,535
near the top of its usual range, a resistance level, a round-number price and the 200-day average · midpoint $6,470.86 · Nov 9
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume27% below normal0.73× its 20-day average
Past year's range$5,501.01 – $8,200.00lowest to highest price
From its peak36.4% belowpeak $9,964.77, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.24 to 1$0.24 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$5,783.16the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)57.4fires under 35 · fires near $5,154.54
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit18.3× next year17.5× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 98%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 13.5×
Cash it generates6.5%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
57.4
fires under 35 · fires near $5,154.54
vs 50-day
●
$6,103.45
above the line · fires near $6,156.25
Bollinger
●
$5,582.35
no lower pierce · fires near $5,526.39
VWAP 20
●
$6,013.68
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $6,012.06
Entry level
✓
$6,306.69
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+64.80
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.73×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$257.07
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-27
in 53 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file