Deep dive · NYSE: DX
Dynex Capital, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Dynex Capital, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.97%
FrankfurtDYT1+0.97%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+32% to the average target
67% buy · 33% hold · 0% sell
median target $15
median target $15
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $12.46 · -9.0%
200-day $12.40 · -8.6%
200-day $12.40 · -8.6%
Earnings
In 22 days
19 Oct 2026 · options imply ±4.9%
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
Valuation
7.2× forward
47th of its own five-year range
5yr median 12×
Dividend
17.99%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 0.58 · vol 18% ann.
worst drawdown -15%
worst drawdown -15%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does154 chars
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States.
NYSE · USDMortgage REITs
$11.340.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 9.25M
52-week range↑ 2% off low · ↓ 24.0% off high
$11.12now $11.34$14.93
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/6WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 6. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.00
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
97th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-41.93%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.76%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 0 clear of 2 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/6Piotroski F-score 4 of 6 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026GOOD · 71/100
Business quality
86% net margin, 13% return on equity, +147% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
71 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
85.7%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
13.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+147% YoY
$303.96M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-12.1%
3 months-14.0%
6 months-6.8%
Year to date-19.5%
1 year-5.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+147.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+65.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+23.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 36%
36 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 20, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
20%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
46%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±1.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
17.99%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.09 over 40 bars
Hammer · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.6%75,485
21d47%-0.7%35,652
63d46%-1.6%11,229
long lower shadow, small body at top
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%499,633
21d51%+0.1%235,260
63d51%+0.3%74,900
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%225,518
21d48%0.0%106,358
63d50%0.0%33,595
RSI 18 ≤ 30
0347TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $11.34, 7.2× forward earnings, RSI 21, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $12.46 · 200-day $12.40. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
21
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.2%
$0.25
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.11
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$12.16
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$12.09
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
19 Oct 2026 · in 22 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,665
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line0.97× segment rate · n=628
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 77% of cases (n=628).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$11 – $112 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $11.22, S1 at $11.17.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
98 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,665) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
22.46pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months7.2×5yr median 12×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported3.6×47th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.02
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit7.5×5yr median 8.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.1×
1 of the 5 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$11.28In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetCall wall + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50
$12.47$12–$13
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$10.79risk $0.50/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.39:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+9.9%
short-term trend line · $12.46
To the 200-day
+9.4%
primary trend line · $12.40
To the put wall
+10.2%
heaviest put open interest · $12.50
To the call wall
+10.2%
heaviest call open interest · $12.50
To the composer's target
+10.0%
Call wall + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $12.47
To the composer's stop
-4.9%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $10.79
To the 52-week high
+31.7%
highest print of the past year · $14.93
To the 52-week low
-2.0%
lowest print of the past year · $11.12
Options-implied week ±4.9%
$10.78 – $11.90
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$11.09 – $11.59
±$0.25 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $11.28 · stop $10.79 · target $12.47, a 2.39:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, gamma ceiling.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain+10.4%
$12.50
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
3.89
20% calls
80% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
6.49
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.55
±4.9%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$12.50PUT2,769
$12.50CALL705
$10.00PUT200
$10.00CALL53
$7.50CALL3
$15.00CALL2
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $12.50
2
$15.00
0705
$12.50
3k53
$10.00
2003
$7.50
00
$5.00
00
$2.50
1
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$14.93+31.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$12.50+10.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$12.50+10.4%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$12.46+10.0%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$12.50+10.4%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 35%, short interest is 7.73% of float, and 3 analysts average $15.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
latest EPS beat by 4%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street3 covering firms
Consensus rating3 ANALYSTS
Buy
67% buy · 33% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 3 covering firms.
Median price target+32%
$15
$14now $11$15
A $14–$15 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$1.57
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Jones Trading$15→50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
34.5%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.5%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
7.73%
Rising — shares short changed +16.7% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float100% OF SHARES
214.08M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)83rd PCTILE
$66.02M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
BOSTON BYRON L · Director, Co-CEO & Chairman of the BoardTax withholding$201,948—08 Sep
Popenoe Smriti Laxman · Director, Co-CEO and PresidentTax withholding$251,716—08 Sep
Neal Douglas E · DirectorAwardnot on file—15 Jun
Neal Douglas E · DirectorFilingnot on file—30 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
0.00%
DX was little changed +0.00% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Dynex Capital: A 17% Yield Looks Attractive, But Dividend Coverage Deserves Attention - Seeking Alpha” (Seeking Alpha).
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 47 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
6h agoIs Dynex Capital (DX) Undervalued After Its $120 Million Preferred Stock Offering? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
FriDynex Capital Enters Underwriting for 9.375% Series D Preferred; $116.2M Net Proceeds Expected - tradingview.comtradingview.comnot scored
FriDynex Capital: A 17% Yield Looks Attractive, But Dividend Coverage Deserves Attention - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
FriDynex Capital, Inc. $DX Stock Acquired by State Street Corp - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
FriDynex Capital (DX) Stock Still Looks Cheap On New Preferred Stock Sale - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
WedDynex Capital (NYSE:DX) Hits New 52-Week Low - Time to Sell? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
WedDynex Capital stock hits 52-week low at 11.92 USD By Investing.com - Investing.com CanadaInvesting.com Canadanot scored
WedDynex Capital stock hits 52-week low at 11.92 USD - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.58, 18% annual volatility, a -15% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.0%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−10.5%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.6×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.6×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-15.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)DAMPENS
0.58
Moves about 0.6× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
18%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure67
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 1.1% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history1 restatement in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 22 days, and the chain prices ±4.9% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
34 logged
34 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on DXTHIS NAME
34
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksMORTGAGE REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-59.0% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 59.0% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NLYCompetitor$20.61+0.05%
AGNCPeer$9.620.00%
STWDPeer$14.360.00%
RITMPeer$9.13+0.11%
BXMTPeer$12.50+0.89%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, DX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Mortgage holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 12 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, DX moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, DX moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 23 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DX moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 23 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DX moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 86 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, DX moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, DX moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually hurts when hiring comes in stronger than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, DX moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
NLY · Competitorcompetitor+0.05%Confirmed · manual
JPM · Suppliersupplier+1.33%Rumored · manual
1 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.