Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) — $16.63 −0.15%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

STWDpeers & supply-chain relationships

STWD fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 550.1K · Avg 3.34M
STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.$16.63-0.15%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
-2net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$16.57
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$16.93
center $16.93 · basis · call wall + daily pivot + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.46
2.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
~61% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 0.8× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.16× · 550.1K vs 3.34M avg
52-week range$16.29 – $20.84
Below high since 2015-39.0% · $27.31 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.5
Plan stop$15.86
Max pain$17.00 options cluster
RSI 1454.8 fires under 35 · fires near $15.22
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$16.63
$15.15 · -8.9%-8.9%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+2.7% · $17.08+2.7%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
54.8
fires under 35 · fires near $15.22
vs 50-day
$16.45
above the line · fires near $16.61
Bollinger
$15.86
no lower pierce · fires near $15.75
VWAP 20
$16.38
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $16.38
Entry level
$16.57
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$16.00
OI strike below · fires near $16.08
MACD
+0.05
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.16×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
5.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.35
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
9 Nov 2026
· in 89 days
Next dividend
11.55% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed