Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) — Mortgage REITs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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STWD fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 4.14M · 3-mo avg 4.18M

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)

STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 1 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 95/100 · was 100 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-251/6Bottom watch · 1 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$14.29
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$15.98
center $15.98 · basis · call wall + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.62
4.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 77% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.93×
52-week range$14.36 – $20.14
Below high since 2015-47.4% · $27.31 high
Risk / reward2.49 : 1
Plan stop$13.71
Max pain$16.00 options cluster
RSI 1424.5 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple25.0× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past44th pctile · 16.0× median
Price / book0.80×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price unchanged. Over the last 20 sessions, 71% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
24.5
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$15.96
below the line
Bollinger
●
$14.34
no lower pierce · fires near $14.33
VWAP 20
✓
$15.34
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$14.29
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$16.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-0.08
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.93×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
5.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.29
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-09
in 32 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.48
ex-date 2026-09-30