Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) — Mortgage REITs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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RITM fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 8.03M · 3-mo avg 5.44M

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)

RITMRithm Capital Corp.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 71/100 · was 73 on Sep 20 · as of 2026-09-252/6Bottom watch · 2 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$9.07
basis · pivot low + s1 + put wall · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$9.73
center $9.73 · basis · sma 200 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.39
4.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 7% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 78% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 7% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.61×
52-week range$8.43 – $12.15
Below high since 2015-52.2% · $19.07 high
Risk / reward1.27 : 1
Plan stop$8.66
Max pain$9.00 options cluster
RSI 1431.3 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple15.4× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past29th pctile · 7.8× median
Price / book0.61×

Trading heavier than its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 53% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
31.3
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$9.82
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$9.20
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$9.74
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$9.07
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$9.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-0.07
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.61×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
5.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 25 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.25
ex-date 2026-10-01