Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) — Mortgage REITs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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BXMT fair-value estimate

BXMT earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 9:44 AM ETVol 1.81M · 3-mo avg 2.25M

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-5net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 8 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 96/100 · was 98 on Sep 20 · as of 2026-09-251/6Bottom watch · 1 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$12.33
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$14–15
center $14.43 · basis · bb upper + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.66
5.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 77% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.15×
52-week range$12.31 – $20.67
Below high since 2015-69.5% · $40.62 high
Risk / reward2.19 : 1
Plan stop$11.62
Max pain$17.00 options cluster
RSI 1423.6 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple155.3× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past68th pctile · 13.8× median
Price / book0.60×

Trading 1.15× its typical day, too early in the session to call the pace, price up 0.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 72% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
23.6
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$14.55
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$12.60
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$13.48
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
●
$12.33
level below · fires near $12.45
Put wall
✓
$14.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.06
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.15×
4% of the session so far — too early to call the pace
Short int.Static
6.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.35
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 23 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.47
ex-date 2026-09-30
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