Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) — $14.17 +0.14%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

BXMTpeers & supply-chain relationships

BXMT fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.01M · Avg 1.84M
BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.$14.17+0.14%Pre-market$14.18+0.07%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -5 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-5net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 9 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$14.10
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$19.88
center $19.88 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.55
3.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~85% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.09× · 2.01M vs 1.84M avg
52-week range$13.73 – $20.67
Below high since 2015-65.1% · $40.62 high
Risk / reward1 : 6.1
Plan stop$13.15
Max pain$12.00 options cluster
RSI 1424.9 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$14.17
$12.83 · -9.5%-9.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.9% · $14.72+3.9%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
24.9
oversold
vs 50-day
$16.77
below the line
Bollinger
$13.30
no lower pierce · fires near $13.05
VWAP 20
$15.31
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$14.10
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$16.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
-0.19
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.09×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
7.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.47
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
28 Oct 2026
· in 77 days
Next dividend
13.27% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed