Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) — Mortgage REITs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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BXMTpeers & supply-chain relationships

BXMT fair-value estimate

BXMT earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.72M · 3-mo avg 2.93M

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$11.10
near a support level and a heavy put-option level · Nov 6
$11.63
near the top of its usual range, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $11.63 · Nov 6
±$0.02
±0.2% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume2% below normal0.98× its 20-day average
Past year's range$10.12 – $20.67lowest to highest price
From its peak72.5% belowpeak $40.62, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.47 to 1$0.47 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$10.21the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$13.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)49.9fires under 35 · fires near $9.89
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit136.8× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 94%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 14.2×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
49.9
fires under 35 · fires near $9.89
vs 50-day
✓
$11.71
below the line
Bollinger
●
$10.03
no lower pierce · fires near $9.89
VWAP 20
●
$10.85
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $10.84
Entry level
✓
$11.10
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$13.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context✓
+0.17
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.98×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.45
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-10
in 63 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.47
ex-date 2026-12-31
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