AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) — $10.76 −0.74%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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AGNC fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 14.07M · Avg 17.14M
AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.$10.76-0.74%

WAIT.

Not a dip-buy setup — the evidence leans bearish.

The net signal reads -3 — more evidence points down than up, so buying this dip is catching a falling stock, not finding value. 2 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
-3net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
2 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$10.71
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$11.32
center $11.32 · basis · bb upper + high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.57
5.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.82× · 14.07M vs 17.14M avg
52-week range$9.37 – $12.19
Below high since 2015-53.2% · $22.99 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.2
Plan stop$10.19
Max pain$10.00 options cluster
RSI 1452.1 fires under 35 · fires near $9.85
Forensic flags0 clean
What-if price
$10.76
$9.79 · -9.0%-9.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.3% · $11.33+5.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
52.1
fires under 35 · fires near $9.85
vs 50-day
$10.54
above the line · fires near $10.64
Bollinger
$10.31
no lower pierce · fires near $10.21
VWAP 20
$10.77
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$10.71
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$10.00
OI strike below · fires near $10.05
MACD
-0.01
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.82×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
9.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
19 Oct 2026
· in 68 days
Next dividend
13.38% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed