Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) — $22.91 −0.56%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

NLYpeers & supply-chain relationships

NLY fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.99M · Avg 7.86M
NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.$22.91-0.56%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$22.80
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$23–24
center $23.48 · basis · bb upper + high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.65
2.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
~46% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 0.7× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.89× · 6.99M vs 7.86M avg
52-week range$20.00 – $24.52
Below high since 2015-56.3% · $52.40 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.6
Plan stop$21.71
Max pain$23.00 options cluster
RSI 1455.5 fires under 35 · fires near $21.16
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$22.91
$21.04 · -8.1%-8.1%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+2.8% · $23.56+2.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
55.5
fires under 35 · fires near $21.16
vs 50-day
$22.12
above the line · fires near $22.33
Bollinger
$22.26
no lower pierce · fires near $22.15
VWAP 20
$22.81
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $22.80
Entry level
$22.80
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$22.50
OI strike below · fires near $22.61
MACD
-0.04
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.89×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.42
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
21 Oct 2026
· in 70 days
Next dividend
13.09% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed