Deep dive · NasdaqCM: ARKO
Arko Corp. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Arko Corp. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — ARKO trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Wall Street rating
Buy
+101% to the average target
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
mean target $8.50
mean target $8.50
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $4.20 · +0.9%
200-day $5.92 · -28.4%
200-day $5.92 · -28.4%
Earnings
In 107 days
24 Feb 2027 · options imply ±17.8%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
Valuation
84.7× forward
95th of its own five-year range
5yr median 26×
FCF yield 15.06%
FCF yield 15.06%
Dividend
2.83%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.64 · vol 42% ann.
worst drawdown -57%
worst drawdown -57%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does96 chars
Arko Corp., through its subsidiary, operates a chain of convenience stores in the United States.
NasdaqCM · USDSpecialty Retail
$4.24+0.27 · +6.68%RTH · vol 290.9K
52-week range↑ 17% off low · ↓ 51.6% off high
$3.61now $4.24$8.76
Quote Nov 9, 2026 · 2:03 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Oct 25, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.6 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 1.1×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.59GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetOct 25, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
0.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
4.93%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.66×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital7.02
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill, from the latest annual SEC filing1.1×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.26
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$2.27B
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$37.60M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
65th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
3.05%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
SBC / operating cash flowCOVERED
8%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.47%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.59Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.88M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 2.38long-term debt 2.38× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 9, 2026POOR · 28/100
Business quality
0% net margin, 6% return on equity, -12% revenue growth, and capital earning 3% against a 4% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
28 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 9, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
0.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
5.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
1.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
6.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-1.4pp
Earns 3% on invested capital that costs about 4%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-10.7%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-3.6%
3 months-15.5%
6 months-42.2%
Year to date-12.6%
1 year-12.7%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-12.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+15.4%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-7.4%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 39%
39 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsNov 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
50%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
29%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.7%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+0.9% / -7.3%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.83%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,308,676
21d47%0.0%613,759
63d47%-0.9%195,225
slope -0.15 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d35%0.0%529,694
21d39%0.0%247,920
63d44%0.0%76,794
long lower shadow, open=close near high
0315-min delayed95TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $4.24, 84.7× forward earnings, RSI 47, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $4.20 · 200-day $5.92. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now15-min delayed
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 6.68% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
47
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.7%
$0.20
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$3.92
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$3.70
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
24 Feb 2027 · in 107 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · tomorrowInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 45cohort n=20,460
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=12,180
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=12,180).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$4 – $43 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $3.80, Pivot low at $3.61, Low 52w at $3.61.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
3 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 45% of cases (n=20,460) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.77pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-17.23
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months84.7×5yr median 26×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported52.9×95th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.79
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.1×5yr median 0.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.2×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay10.6×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off41.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value15.06%
4 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + pivot low + S1
$3.90Target reached
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + round + sma 50 + vwap 50
$4.21$4–$4
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$3.46risk $0.45/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.69:1set at the close before
The price has already reached the target, so no reward is left on these levels; this is the ratio the composer set at the close before, not one on offer now.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-1.0%
short-term trend line · $4.20
To the 200-day
+39.6%
primary trend line · $5.92
To the put wall
+135.8%
heaviest put open interest · $10.00
To the call wall
-41.0%
heaviest call open interest · $2.50
To the composer's target
-0.7%
Bb upper + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $4.21
To the composer's stop
-18.5%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Nov 6, 2026 · $3.46
To the 52-week high
+106.5%
highest print of the past year · $8.76
To the 52-week low
-15.0%
lowest print of the past year · $3.61
Options-implied week ±17.8%
$3.49 – $4.99
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$4.04 – $4.44
±$0.20 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $3.90 · stop $3.46 · target $4.21, a 0.69:1 ratio. The composer flagged: low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Nov 9, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-20 · Chain · Nov 9, 2026
Max pain+88.9%
$7.50
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
2.57
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.71
±17.8%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$10.00PUT510
$7.50PUT292
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-20CallsPutsMax pain $7.50
0
$12.50
00
$10.00
5100
$7.50
2920
$5.00
00
$2.50
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$8.76+120.5%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$2.50-37.0%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$7.50+88.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$4.20+5.7%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$10.00+151.9%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 70%, short interest is 12.88% of float, and 1 analysts average $8.50.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-1BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
latest EPS missed by 33%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 1 covering firms.
Mean price target+101%
$8.50
$7now $4$10
A $7.00–$10 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$0.13
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
70.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
29.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
12.88%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float50% OF SHARES
55.92M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)56th PCTILE
$3.66M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Edmiston Sherman III · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Oct
Fogel Yona · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Oct
HEYER ANDREW R · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Oct
FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Oct
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+6.68%
ARKO rose +6.68% in today's session, amid recent coverage: “Arko Corp. (ARKO) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance Canada” (Yahoo! Finance Canada).
News tone · 7-day—
59 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatArko Corp. (ARKO) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
FriARKO Corp (ARKO) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Raised EBITDA Guidance and 12th Straight ... - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
FriArko earnings missed by $0.06, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com AustraliaInvesting.com Australianot scored
FriARKO (NASDAQ:ARKO) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.04 EPS - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
FriARKO Corp. (NASDAQ:ARKO) Shareholders to Collect $0.03 Quarterly Dividend - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
ThuWhat ARKO (ARKO) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuArko Corp Q3FY26 Results: Adjusted EBITDA rises to $75.7 million - scanx.tradescanx.tradenot scored
ThuARKO Share News - Latest Updates, Live News & More - scanx.tradescanx.tradenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.64, 42% annual volatility, a -57% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−13.6%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-57.0%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.64
The market explains about 2.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure28
Buying pressure24
Overheat15
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowEarningslatest EPS missed by 33%4 quarters · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
18.6%1.3× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 5.2% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -57%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 42% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
33 logged
33 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksSPECIALTY RETAIL
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-4.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
WSMPeer$262.81+3.44%
CASYPeer$685.39-0.33%
DKSPeer$148.62+5.54%
ULTAPeer$669.21+3.79%
TSCOPeer$37.55+3.30%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystTOMORROW
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 3, 2026
Retail sales is due in 8 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedTheir own sales are in the report.
Typical for the Specialty Retail industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later -1.4% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, ARKO moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 80 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ARKO moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 9 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedHomebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -1.9% · Rose on 20 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, ARKO moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later -1.4% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ARKO moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 4 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 22 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ARKO moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 11 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedPeople spend more when they feel confident.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -1.9% · Two weeks later -1.3% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, ARKO moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 12 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ARKO moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due tomorrow.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, ARKO moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AMZN · Customercustomer+3.36%Rumored · manual
FDX · Suppliersupplier+3.65%Rumored · manual
TGT · Competitorcompetitor+5.01%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.