Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) — $548.66 −2.92%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

ULTApeers & supply-chain relationships

ULTA fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 727.3K · Avg 750.9K
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$548.66-2.92%Pre-market$550.00+0.24%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$545.92
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$551–559
center $555.11 · basis · daily pivot + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$35.17
6.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~64% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.97× · 727.3K vs 750.9K avg
52-week range$443.60 – $714.97
Below high since 2015-23.3% · $714.97 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$514.30
Max pain$502.50 options cluster
RSI 1467.4 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$548.66
$433.32 · -21.0%-21.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.4% · $583.83+6.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
67.4
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$483.38
above the line · fires near $486.67
Bollinger
$445.28
no lower pierce · fires near $435.48
VWAP 20
$503.99
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $503.97
Entry level
$545.92
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$525.00
OI strike below · fires near $527.03
MACD
+6.26
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.97×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
5.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$15.81
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
27 Aug 2026 · after the bell
amc · in 15 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed