Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) — Specialty Retail. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ULTApeers & supply-chain relationships

ULTA fair-value estimate

ULTA earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 313.7K · 3-mo avg 620.0K

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 7 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 1/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$542.47
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$550–558
center $553.93 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$38.22
7.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 67% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.50×
52-week range$443.60 – $714.97
Below high since 2015-23.7% · $714.97 high
Risk / reward0.20 : 1
Plan stop$501.53
Max pain$540.00 options cluster
RSI 1452.4 fires under 35 · fires near $484.82
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple17.0× fwd · 19.9× trailing
P/E vs its own past63rd pctile · 19.0× median
Free cash flow yield4.5% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 54% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
52.4
fires under 35 · fires near $484.82
vs 50-day
●
$528.44
above the line · fires near $533.44
Bollinger
●
$525.25
no lower pierce · fires near $521.28
VWAP 20
●
$542.49
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $542.46
Entry level
✓
$542.47
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$560.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-1.18
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.50×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
5.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$15.17
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-03
in 48 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file