Deep dive · NYQ: TWO
Two Harbors Investment Corp stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Two Harbors Investment Corp. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Street and Event are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.29.
Leans up · and why
analyst moves, sentiment vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
earnings, insider flow vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Street against Event.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtWJ60.00%⏱TaiwanTWO0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart here
Wall Street rating
Hold
Across 5 covering firms
0% buy · 88% hold · 13% sell
Earnings
In 29 days
26 Oct 2026
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
12.4× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 7×
Dividend
11.17%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
worst drawdown -1%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYQ · USDMortgage REITs
$12.18+0.13 · +1.08%CLOSED · vol 19.38M
52-week range↑ 39% off low · ↓ 14.0% off high
$8.78now $12.18$14.17
Quote Aug 24, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-08-24
Tape 2026-08-24
01Ratios · Sep 7, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 2/7CRITICAL
Piotroski F-score 2 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 7, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.79
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
81st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-0.02%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.21long-term debt 0.21× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 2/7Piotroski F-score 2 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 14/100
Business quality
-395% net margin, -25% return on equity, -77% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
14 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-394.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-25.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)-77% YoY
$232.39M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.5%
3 months-2.9%
6 months+14.0%
Year to date+15.1%
1 year+24.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-77.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-305.9%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsJul 28, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
1 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
33%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
47%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.3%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
11.17%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.02 over 40 bars
Long legged doji
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%172,242
21d49%0.0%81,011
63d49%-0.2%25,751
indecision, long shadows
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%494,581
21d50%0.0%232,288
63d51%+0.2%73,891
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Range breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%-0.4%80,398
21d46%-0.6%37,836
63d47%-0.9%12,077
breaks 20-day high on heavy volume
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0312.4× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $12.18, 12.4× forward earnings, RSI 64.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
64WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-20 → 2026-08-24
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 1.08% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.5%
$0.06
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$12.08
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$12.02
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $12 · S1 $12
$12.18
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownUP SETUP
2 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
26 Oct 2026 · in 29 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=81,071
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=81,071).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
2.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months12.4×5yr median 7×
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit11.1×5yr median 4.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.7×
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 6, 2026
Call wallheaviest call OI
$12.00-0.1%
The strike with the heaviest call open interest. It tends to act as a ceiling into expiry.
Put wallheaviest put OI
$13.00+8.2%
The strike with the heaviest put open interest. Dealer hedging tends to cushion price here.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-08-21 expiry · Chain · Sep 6, 2026
Max pain+24.8%
$15.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
64.73
2% calls
98% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
6.21
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$13.00PUT880
$12.00PUT350
$11.00PUT327
$4.00PUT47
$14.00PUT40
$15.00PUT33
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-08-21 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $15.00
0
$18.00
00
$16.00
00
$15.00
330
$14.00
403
$13.00
88023
$12.00
3500
$11.00
3270
$6.00
60
$5.00
00
$4.00
47
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$14.17+17.9%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$12.00-0.1%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$15.00+24.8%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ Put wall$13.00+8.2%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 88%, short interest is 4.18% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
2 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
3 of the prior 4 quarters missed
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($36,579,816 across 13 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (71/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.29 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street5 covering firms
Consensus rating5 ANALYSTS
Hold
0% buy · 88% hold · 13% sell, as a share of the 5 covering firms.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$1.18
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
RBC Capital$12↑53/100
JP Morgan$12↑53/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
87.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
1.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
4.18%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float99% OF SHARES
104.01M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)76th PCTILE
$33.15M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSS · Director, Chief Executive OfficerAwardnot on file—25 Aug
GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSS · Director, Chief Executive OfficerSell$14.6M—25 Aug
GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSS · Director, Chief Executive OfficerSell$36,300—25 Aug
HANSON ALECIA · Chief Administrative OfficerAwardnot on file—25 Aug
HANSON ALECIA · Chief Administrative OfficerSell$1.7M—25 Aug
Sandberg Rebecca B · Chief Legal OfficerAwardnot on file—25 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026VOLUME
+1.08%
TWO rose +1.08% since the last close on unusually heavy volume (7.1× its average).
News tone · 7-day—
71 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 14 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuNotes due in 2030 are slated for voluntary NYSE withdrawal by Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO). - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Sep 14TWO Announces Intention to Voluntarily Delist and Deregister 9.375% Senior Notes due 2030 from the New York Stock Exchange - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Aug 25Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) reports merger cash-out and PSU vesting for exec - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Aug 25Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) insider gets $12 per share in merger - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Aug 25Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) CFO exits 83,388 shares in $12 cash merger - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Aug 25Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) CAO exits stake in CCM merger cash deal - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Aug 25Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) director cashed out in $12 merger - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Aug 25Merger leaves Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO) director with zero shares - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
4 of 5 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
6% annual volatility, a -1% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-1.1%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
6%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
What votes againstNightly
LowEarnings3 of the prior 4 quarters missed4 quarters · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($36,579,816 across 13 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 1.1% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 27.3 quarters of cash at current burn ($476M cash against $70M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 29 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on TWOTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksMORTGAGE REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-57.1% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NLYCompetitor$20.61+0.05%
AGNCPeer$9.620.00%
STWDPeer$14.360.00%
RITMPeer$9.13+0.11%
BXMTPeer$12.50+0.89%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 23, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, TWO moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Mortgage holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, TWO moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, TWO moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 22 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TWO moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +1.9% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 22 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, TWO moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 77 of 166 report days
Across the last 166 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, TWO moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, TWO moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually hurts when hiring comes in stronger than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +1.4% · Rose on 13 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, TWO moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 1.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BK · Suppliersupplier+7.61%Rumored · manual
NLY · Competitorcompetitor+0.05%Confirmed · manual
1 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.