Everything behind the call on Stellantis N.V. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 5 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $5.48 · -12.0% 200-day $7.62 · -36.8%
Earnings
In 40 days
28 Oct 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,757
Valuation
4.2× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 3× FCF yield 55.57%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
4 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.38 · vol 42% ann. worst drawdown -59%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDAuto Manufacturers
$4.82-0.23 · -4.55%CLOSED · vol 36.64M
52-week range↑ 0% off low · ↓ 60.6% off high
$4.82now $4.82$12.22
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file Tape 2026-09-17 Factors 2026-09-18
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.24×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.36
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$14.21B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
16th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
0 critical · 4 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
1 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.11Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -2.21M-score in range · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 4 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 56/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 23% return on equity, +6% revenue growth, and capital earning 32% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
56 / 100FAIR
Profitability · net margin 10%
Growth · revenue +6% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 0.36
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
9.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
20.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
12.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
22.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
24.7pp
Earns 32% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-7.0%
3 months
-20.3%
6 months
-22.3%
Year to date
-55.8%
1 year
-47.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+5.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+11.9%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-48.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 20%
20 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Its own record against consensus. 2 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=2 measured prints
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
As of · Jul 30, 2026
Next reportIN 40 DAYS
28 Oct 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $0.45 · revenue 35.8 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.00%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $5.48 · 200-day $7.62. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 4.55% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$13.97B
Day range$4.82 – $5.30
Above 52-week low0%
Realized volatility42% ann.
Worst drawdown-59.4%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
36
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.6%
$0.17
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$5.28
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$5.05
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 1 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,845
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 82% of cases (n=5,845).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$5 – $52 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $5.00, Low 52w at $4.88.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
43 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$4.49
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months4.2×5yr median 3×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.1×5yr median 0.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.2×
EV / EBITDAOperating earnings are negative, so this multiple has no denominator to divide into.Not meaningful
EV / free cash flowThe business consumes cash rather than generating it, so this multiple has no denominator to divide into.Not meaningful
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value55.57%
0 of the 4 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + S1
$5.02In zone deep
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$5.49$5–$6
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$4.68risk $0.35/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.35:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+13.6%
short-term trend line · $5.48
To the 200-day
+58.1%
primary trend line · $7.62
To the composer's target
+13.9%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $5.49
To the composer's stop
-2.9%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $4.68
To the 52-week high
+153.5%
highest print of the past year · $12.22
To the 52-week low
0.0%
lowest print of the past year · $4.82
A typical day (ATR)
$4.65 – $4.99
±$0.17 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $5.02 · stop $4.68 · target $5.49, a 1.35:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 48%, short interest is 5.77% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
Earnings -2
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 66%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
48.3%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
23.5%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
5.77%
Rising — shares short changed +33.8% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float84% OF SHARES
2.44B
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)86th PCTILE
$103.89M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayTECHNICAL
-4.55%
STLA fell −4.55% in after-hours trading, closing below lower band ($5.07).
Matched · Sep 18, 2026
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
2 of 4 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
Disclosed lawmaker trades, with their legal reporting lag.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.38, 42% annual volatility, a -59% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−11.0%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−34.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.7×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.7×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-59.4%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.38
Moves about 1.4× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.41
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure67
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 66%4 quarters · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
13.9%1.5× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 1.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.5% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -59%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 42% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.38 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
23 logged
23 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
10 resolved · 13 open
Calls on STLATHIS NAME
23
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksAUTO MANUFACTURERS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 12 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-55.2% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
TSLAPeer$364.27-0.53%
TOYOFPeer$19.10-1.14%
TMPeer$191.53-1.23%
BYDDFPeer$10.400.00%
GMCompetitor$82.20-5.10%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Historical retrospective. Context, not a forecast.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 14, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
This report is the sector's own sales figure, printed monthly.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -1.8% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, STLA moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -1.3% · Rose on 75 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, STLA moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Homebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -2.1% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, STLA moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 2.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -1.8% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, STLA moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, STLA moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day -0.3% · A week later -1.5% · Two weeks later -2.2% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, STLA moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 2.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later -1.5% · Two weeks later -1.8% · Rose on 16 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, STLA moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 1.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later -0.6% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, STLA moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableThe supply-momentum read covered this name but produced no priced customers, so there is nothing to weight.