Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — Auto Manufacturers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 45.93M · 3-mo avg 38.93M

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

TSLATesla, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-4net
1 bull / 4 bear factors · leaning
Bull 1 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~8% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$370.25
basis · pivot low + s1 + put wall · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$375–381
center $377.93 · basis · call wall + daily pivot + max pain + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$13.81
3.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.16×
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
Below high since 2015-25.4% · $498.83 high
Risk / reward0.24 : 1
Plan stop$347.83
Max pain$377.50 options cluster
RSI 1455.3 fires under 35 · fires near $319.87
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple171.3× fwd · 338.3× trailing
P/E vs its own past93rd pctile · 99.0× median
Free cash flow yield0.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 1.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
●
55.3
fires under 35 · fires near $319.87
vs 50-day
●
$348.25
above the line · fires near $351.21
Bollinger
●
$347.92
no lower pierce · fires near $344.47
VWAP 20
●
$365.83
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $365.71
Entry level
✓
$370.25
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+1.08
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.16×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$11.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 18 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file