Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — $330.88 +0.70%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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TSLApeers & supply-chain relationships

TSLA fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 24.95M · Avg 44.44M
TSLATesla, Inc.$330.88+0.70%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 2 accounting red flags are raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-4net
2 bull / 4 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$329.23
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$375–382
center $378.60 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$16.94
5.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.56× · 24.95M vs 44.44M avg
52-week range$297.38 – $498.83
Below high since 2015-33.7% · $498.83 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.7
Plan stop$300.57
Max pain$317.50 options cluster
RSI 1442.5 fires under 35 · fires near $312.30
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$330.88
$260.09 · -21.4%-21.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.1% · $347.82+5.1%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
42.5
fires under 35 · fires near $312.30
vs 50-day
$378.22
below the line
Bollinger
$273.68
no lower pierce · fires near $261.42
VWAP 20
$335.66
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$329.23
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$325.00
OI strike below · fires near $326.46
MACD
+2.17
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.56×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
2.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$14.33
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
21 Oct 2026
· in 70 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed