Deep dive · OTC Markets OTCPK: SMTGF
SMA Solar Technology AG stock analysis
Everything behind the call on SMA Solar Technology AG. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — SMTGF trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $64.88 · +3.2%
200-day $54.58 · +22.7%
200-day $54.58 · +22.7%
Earnings
In 45 days
12 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.35 · vol 43% ann.
worst drawdown -30%
worst drawdown -30%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does224 chars
SMA Solar Technology AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and sells PV and battery inverters, monitoring systems for PV systems, and charging solutions for electric vehicles in Germany and internationally.
OTC Markets OTCPK · USDSolar Energy Technology
$66.950.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 100
52-week range↑ 203% off low · ↓ 18.4% off high
$22.06now $66.95$82.00
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/8WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 28, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.31×healthy >2
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
25th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
0 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.80Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -1.99M-score in range (m5 7/8) · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/8Piotroski F-score 4 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 28, 2026POOR · 18/100
Business quality
-12% net margin, -50% return on equity, -1% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
18 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 28, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-11.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
8.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-9.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-49.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+7.8%
3 months+18.4%
6 months+21.7%
Year to date+60.4%
1 year+203.5%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-0.9%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+181.5%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 15%
85 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 45 DAYS
12 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.83 · revenue 430.8 M
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.00%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 28, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,138,506
21d47%-0.3%534,204
63d48%-0.9%170,670
slope +0.12 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d35%0.0%511,532
21d39%0.0%239,326
63d44%0.0%73,988
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%326,201
21d47%0.0%152,810
63d50%0.0%48,589
matching highs
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%502,685
21d51%+0.1%236,128
63d51%+0.4%75,142
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Macd bearish cross · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%156,564
21d51%+0.1%73,500
63d50%0.0%23,341
MACD crossed below signal
03
Price & timing
Price $66.95, RSI 56.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $64.88 · 200-day $54.58. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
56
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±1.3%
$0.90
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position57% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$68.92
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$68.11
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
12 Nov 2026 · in 45 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 19 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · tomorrowJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=13,174
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=13,174).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$62 – $631 support
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $62.10.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Multiples
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets6.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value4.01%
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low
$62.55Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$82.00$82–$82
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$60.76risk $1.79/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
10.85:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-3.1%
short-term trend line · $64.88
To the 200-day
-18.5%
primary trend line · $54.58
To the composer's target
+22.5%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $82.00
To the composer's stop
-9.3%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $60.76
To the 52-week high
+22.5%
highest print of the past year · $82.00
To the 52-week low
-67.1%
lowest print of the past year · $22.06
A typical day (ATR)
$66.05 – $67.85
±$0.90 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $62.55 · stop $60.76 · target $82.00, a 10.85:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 31%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
30.7%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
47.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float77% OF SHARES
26.76M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)11th PCTILE
$3,481/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
0.00%
SMTGF was little changed +0.00% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.35, 43% annual volatility, a -30% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-30.3%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.35
The market explains about 0.4% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
43%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure48
Overheat25
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.5%0.2× its cohort · thinnest-traded micro-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinnest-traded micro-caps segment: 7.8%. This name reads 0.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 28.1% · tail cap 2.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.6% is the number (n=120,445). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 11.0% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -30%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 43% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
8 logged
8 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on SMTGFTHIS NAME
8
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksSOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+30.3% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
FSLRPeer$177.71+3.22%
NXTPeer$80.85+1.10%
ENPHPeer$32.40-1.28%
SEDGPeer$32.68+2.41%
RUNPeer$8.11+4.24%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystTOMORROW
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 22, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 2 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, SMTGF moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Solar projects are financed with debt; higher rates make them harder to fund.
Typical for the Solar Energy Technology industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 1 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, SMTGF moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 2 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, SMTGF moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later -1.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 3 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SMTGF moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later -1.5% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 3 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SMTGF moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 14 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, SMTGF moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due tomorrow.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +1.2% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 5 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, SMTGF moved +1.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later -1.1% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, SMTGF moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CAT · Suppliersupplier+2.03%Rumored · manual
XOM · Customercustomer-0.96%Rumored · manual
EPD · Competitorcompetitor-1.40%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.