Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) — Solar Energy Technology. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ENPH fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 11:00 AM ETVol 4.14M · 3-mo avg 4.75M

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-2net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 1 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 48/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$32.66
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$37–38
center $37.80 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.85
8.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.55×
52-week range$25.78 – $73.74
Below high since 2015-90.7% · $354.76 high
Risk / reward1.22 : 1
Plan stop$28.46
Max pain$36.00 options cluster
RSI 1433.4 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple14.4× fwd · 32.3× trailing
P/E vs its own past23rd pctile · 53.5× median
Free cash flow yield2.2% · of market value

Trading heavier than its own normal, price down 1.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 63% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

6 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
33.4
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$37.88
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$32.90
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$35.89
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$32.66
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$35.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.26
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.55×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
18.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.93
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-10-27
in 22 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file