Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CATpeers & supply-chain relationships

CAT fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.98M · 3-mo avg 2.95M

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

CATCaterpillar Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~29% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$817.47
basis · pivot low + s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$825–835
center $830.21 · basis · bb upper + daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$57.43
7.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.82×
52-week range$462.38 – $1,073.46
Below high since 2015-23.5% · $1,073.46 high
Risk / reward0.17 : 1
Plan stop$771.53
Max pain$800.00 options cluster
RSI 1452.3 fires under 35 · fires near $756.81
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple25.4× fwd · 35.4× trailing
P/E vs its own past87th pctile · 17.5× median
Free cash flow yield2.0% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
52.3
fires under 35 · fires near $756.81
vs 50-day
✓
$829.20
at the line
Bollinger
●
$776.93
no lower pierce · fires near $772.57
VWAP 20
●
$802.00
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $801.89
Entry level
✓
$817.47
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$785.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context✓
+4.36
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.82×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$20.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
0.79% yld
no ex-date on file