Deep dive · NYSE: PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Street are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at -3 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.46, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings vote up. 3 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves vote down. 1 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Street.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; and the binding position cap is 3.9% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtUA90.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Hold
0% to the average target
20% buy · 80% hold · 0% sell
median target $212
median target $212
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $213.01 · -0.2%
200-day $174.06 · +22.2%
200-day $174.06 · +22.2%
Earnings
In 40 days
28 Oct 2026 · options imply ±4.8%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Valuation
14.9× forward
97th of its own five-year range
5yr median 10×
FCF yield 4.62%
FCF yield 4.62%
Dividend
2.71%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 0.57 · vol 10% ann.
worst drawdown -20%
worst drawdown -20%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does248 chars
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally.
NYSE · USDAuto & Truck Dealerships
$212.65-2.10 · -0.98%AH · vol 391.6K
52-week range↑ 52% off low · ↓ 6.3% off high
$140.12now $212.65$227.00
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.1 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.13SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
6.7σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.12%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.99×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.57
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.12
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$8.66B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
12th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.37%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.1%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.13Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.47M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.32long-term debt 0.32× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026POOR · 36/100
Business quality
3% net margin, 17% return on equity, 0% revenue growth, and capital earning 7% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
36 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
2.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
16.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
4.0%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
16.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
1.0pp
Earns 7% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-4.9%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-1.4%
3 months+22.6%
6 months+48.8%
Year to date+35.8%
1 year+20.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-0.2%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+2.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+25.4%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 12%
88 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 29, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
50%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
17%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±1.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+0.6% / -0.2%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.71%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope -0.00 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,212,095
21d51%+0.1%570,206
63d52%+0.4%180,573
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%971,828
21d52%+0.2%456,413
63d54%+0.5%144,062
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,242,409
21d50%0.0%584,002
63d51%+0.2%184,289
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%961,327
21d50%+0.1%451,185
63d52%+0.3%141,927
three troughs ≈ equal
Rectangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%220,455
21d48%0.0%103,280
63d50%0.0%32,374
horizontal range
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0397TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $212.65, 14.9× forward earnings, RSI 48, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $213.01 · 200-day $174.06. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.98% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
48
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±1.3%
$2.76
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.98
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$217.25
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$212.75
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,623
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.71× segment rate · n=10,214
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 47% of cases (n=10,214).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$212 – $2142 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $213.58, S1 at $213.27.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
34 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,623) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
1.41pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-131.64
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months14.9×5yr median 10×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported15.6×97th of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.4×5yr median 0.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.5×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay13.4×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off35.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value4.62%
1 of the 7 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$213.68In zone deep
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$225.51$225–$226
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$208.15risk $5.53/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.14:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+0.2%
short-term trend line · $213.01
To the 200-day
-18.1%
primary trend line · $174.06
To the put wall
-27.1%
heaviest put open interest · $155.00
To the call wall
+3.5%
heaviest call open interest · $220.00
To the composer's target
+6.0%
52-week high · set Sep 17, 2026 · $225.51
To the composer's stop
-2.1%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $208.15
To the 52-week high
+6.7%
highest print of the past year · $227.00
To the 52-week low
-34.1%
lowest print of the past year · $140.12
Options-implied week ±4.8%
$202.55 – $222.75
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$209.89 – $215.41
±$2.76 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $213.68 · stop $208.15 · target $225.51, a 2.14:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 18, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-18 · Chain · Sep 18, 2026
Max pain-2.2%
$210.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.73
37% calls
63% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
3.00
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $10.20
±4.8%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$155.00PUT256
$220.00CALL175
$210.00PUT28
$200.00PUT26
$210.00CALL5
$230.00CALL4
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18CallsPutsMax pain $210.00
2
$240.00
04
$230.00
0175
$220.00
45
$210.00
280
$200.00
260
$195.00
00
$170.00
10
$165.00
10
$160.00
10
$155.00
2560
$150.00
10
$140.00
10
$135.00
2
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$227.00+5.7%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$220.00+2.4%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$210.00-2.2%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$213.01-0.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$155.00-27.8%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 81%, short interest is 11.16% of float, and 8 analysts average $212.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-5
4 analyst downgrades in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 7%
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean up.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.46 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street8 covering firms
Consensus rating8 ANALYSTS
Hold
20% buy · 80% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 8 covering firms.
Median price target0%
$212
$205now $213$225
A $205–$225 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$14.18
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Barclays$225↑50/100
JP Morgan$215↑49/100
Stephens & Co.$210↑50/100
Morgan Stanley$210↑47/100
Citigroup$210↑48/100
Benchmark—↓47/100
Benchmark—↓47/100
Barclays$220↑50/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
81.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
21.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
11.16%
Rising — shares short changed +2.0% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float27% OF SHARES
17.60M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)85th PCTILE
$83.23M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Davis Lisa Ann · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
Duerheimer Wolfgang · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
Pierce Sandra E. · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
Hoogendoorn David · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
SCOTT RAYMOND E · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
SMITH GREG C · DirectorAwardnot on file—01 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-0.98%
PAG fell −0.98% in after-hours trading, amid recent coverage: “Penske Automotive Group stock holds steady as investors eye recent earnings - ad-hoc-news.de” (ad-hoc-news.de).
News tone · 7-day-7
43 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
3h agoPenske Automotive Group stock holds steady as investors eye recent earnings - ad-hoc-news.dead-hoc-news.denot scored
6h agoPagSeguro Digital Stock (PAG) Opinions on J.P. Morgan Earnings Projection Cut - Quiver QuantitativeQuiver Quantitativenot scored
13h agoParagon Banking Group (LON:PAG) Share Price Passes Above 200 Day Moving Average - Time to Sell? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
WedWhat Is Keeping Paragon Banking Group (LSE:PAG) In The Specialist Lending Spotlight? - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
TueZacks Industry Outlook Highlights Penske Automotive and Lithia Motors - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
MonParagon Banking Group (PAG) Updates Share Buyback Data for September 7, 2026 Trades on Chi-X and Turquoise - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
Mon2 Auto Retailers to Watch Amid Tight Inventory and Costly LoansZacksnot scored
MonCalifornia State Teachers Retirement System Has $658.11 Million Stock Holdings in Penske Automotive Group, Inc. $PAG - marketbeat.commarketbeat.comnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
1 of 2 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.57, 10% annual volatility, a -20% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-20.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.57
The market explains about 7.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
10%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure61
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
HighAnalyst moves4 analyst downgrades in 90d90d · -5
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 77.2% · tail cap 3.9% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 4.0% is the number (n=29,742). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 0.8% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days, and the chain prices ±4.8% for the week.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
27 logged
27 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on PAGTHIS NAME
27
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksAUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-39.4% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
CVNAPeer$65.12-1.09%
ALTBPeer$10.000.00%
KMXPeer$57.18-2.06%
LADPeer$316.27-1.68%
ANPeer$168.19-3.83%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 13, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 87 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, PAG moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Homebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, PAG moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, PAG moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, PAG moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Car sales are the largest line in the report.
Typical for the Auto & Truck Dealerships industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, PAG moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 7 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedPeople spend more when they feel confident.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, PAG moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 12 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, PAG moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, PAG moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CAT · Suppliersupplier+1.30%Rumored · manual
XOM · Customercustomer+0.17%Rumored · manual
EPD · Competitorcompetitor+1.14%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.