Carvana Co. (CVNA) — Auto & Truck Dealerships. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CVNA fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 10:23 AM ETVol 2.03M · 3-mo avg 9.47M

Carvana Co. (CVNA)

CVNACarvana Co.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~15% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 9/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$65.51
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$67–69
center $67.78 · basis · daily pivot + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$5.75
8.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.93×
52-week range$54.46 – $97.38
Below high since 2017-32.4% · $97.38 high
Risk / reward0.22 : 1
Plan stop$59.51
Max pain$71.00 options cluster
RSI 1440.1 fires under 35 · fires near $63.37
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple28.9× fwd · 34.5× trailing
P/E vs its own past2nd pctile · 67.2× median
Free cash flow yield1.9% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price up 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
40.1
fires under 35 · fires near $63.37
vs 50-day
$69.25
below the line
Bollinger
$65.88
no lower pierce · fires near $65.74
VWAP 20
$71.63
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$65.51
level below · fires near $66.14
Put wall
$60.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
-1.13
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.93×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
9.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.00
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 28 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file