MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) — Mortgage REITs. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MFA fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.41M · 3-mo avg 1.55M

MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)

MFAMFA Financial, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 53/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$8.13
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$8.89
center $8.89 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.39
4.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.86×
52-week range$8.12 – $10.43
Below high since 2015-77.5% · $36.37 high
Risk / reward1.63 : 1
Plan stop$7.73
Max pain$11.00 options cluster
RSI 1430.8 washed out
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple5.8× fwd · 8.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past8th pctile · 9.3× median
Price / book0.45×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 62% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
30.8
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$8.90
below the line
Bollinger
●
$8.12
no lower pierce · fires near $8.10
VWAP 20
✓
$8.57
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$8.13
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$12.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.03
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.86×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
5.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.17
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.36
ex-date 2026-10-05
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Stock Price & Signals · QTick