Deep dive · NYSE: GEF-B
Greif, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Greif, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
1 factors lean up and 2 lean down and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at -2 over 30d, a balanced reading, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
sentiment vote up.
Leans down · and why
earnings, insider flow vote down.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −5.9%; and the binding position cap is 2.9% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — GEF-B trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $108.71 · -5.5%
200-day $93.17 · +10.3%
200-day $93.17 · +10.3%
Earnings
In 79 days
26 Jan 2027
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
Valuation
13.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 4.22%
Dividend
3.58%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
4 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.55 · vol 29% ann.
worst drawdown -17%
worst drawdown -17%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does117 chars
Greif, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide.
NYSE · USDPackaging & Containers
$102.76+0.21 · +0.20%CLOSED · vol 99.3K
52-week range↑ 72% off low · ↓ 12.4% off high
$59.76now $102.76$117.33
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.92GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
9.4σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.53×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.44
Leverage · long-term debt / total assetsthe share of everything the company owns that long-term borrowing funds0.16
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$2.80B
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$264.90M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
28th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
0 critical · 4 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.92Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.54M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.17long-term debt 1.17× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 4 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 32/100
Business quality
6% net margin, 13% return on equity, +4% revenue growth, and capital earning 6% against a 5% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
32 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
6.2%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
20.6%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
7.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
12.9%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
1.1pp
Earns 6% on invested capital that costs about 5%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-17.0%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-4.8%
3 months-6.1%
6 months+20.1%
Year to date+37.6%
1 year+71.7%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+4.3%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-26.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+87.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 45%
55 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsNov 3, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
60%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.05× COHORT
Persistent
beats most quarters, by thin margins
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
3.58%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,533,785
21d48%0.0%720,839
63d50%+0.1%226,963
slope +0.05 over 40 bars
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,293,438
21d49%0.0%607,588
63d51%+0.2%191,671
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,001,589
21d49%0.0%470,024
63d52%+0.2%147,634
three troughs ≈ equal
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%509,606
21d49%0.0%239,810
63d50%+0.1%76,130
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
0313.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $102.76, 13.8× forward earnings, RSI 33.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $108.71 · 200-day $93.17. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.20% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
33
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.6%
$3.71
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-1.47
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position2% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$111.51
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$106.20
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
26 Jan 2027 · in 79 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.77× segment rate · n=11,310
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 61% of cases (n=11,310).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$99 – $1023 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $102.11, Pivot low at $101.71, S1 at $101.33.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
32 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.94pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-29.78
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months13.8×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported31.0×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.30
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.9×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.9×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay11.4×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off40.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value4.22%
3 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$102.25In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$108.83$108–$110
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$94.83risk $7.42/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.89:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+5.8%
short-term trend line · $108.71
To the 200-day
-9.3%
primary trend line · $93.17
To the composer's target
+5.9%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $108.83
To the composer's stop
-7.7%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $94.83
To the 52-week high
+14.2%
highest print of the past year · $117.33
To the 52-week low
-41.8%
lowest print of the past year · $59.76
A typical day (ATR)
$99.05 – $106.47
±$3.71 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $102.25 · stop $94.83 · target $108.83, a 0.89:1 ratio. The composer flagged: low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 14%, short interest is 1.66% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 21%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($9,122,576 across 14 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (75/100)
Signal
1 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
13.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
78.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.66%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Dollar volume (ADV)64th PCTILE
$9.22M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET +9
+10 / −1
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Hoffman Leonard Dennis Jr · Senior VP, General CounselAwardnot on file—02 Nov
Bouet Vivian · SVP Chief Info & Digital OffAwardnot on file—02 Nov
Hilsheimer Lawrence A. · EVP and CFOAwardnot on file—02 Nov
Rosgaard Ole G · Director, President and CEOAwardnot on file—02 Nov
Morrison Karen · DirectorAward$26,250—02 Nov
Sathyanarayanan Bala · EVP, Chief Human Resources OffAwardnot on file—02 Nov
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.20%
GEF-B was little changed +0.20% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “AMN,HLF,BSBK,FXNC,IMRX,MRBK,FRST,PDYN,TISI,GRNT,TPL,FTHM,VSTS,RVSB,GEF-B,TMCI,BCRX,SHEN,BTSG,NBBK,CION,USCB | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance Canada” (Yahoo! Finance Canada).
News tone · 7-day—
75 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 50 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
6h agoCABA,PFX,ELUT,HYPD,ZBIO,ALT,SELF,ENTX,BLIN,LUCK,PCF,GAIA,MDRR,CFBK,VSTS,SPMC,GEF-B,FRD,MDBH,IRIX,RAL,RNXT,AIRJ | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
6h agoCABA,PFX,ELUT,ZBIO,HYPD,ALT,SELF,ENTX,SRBK,PCF,LUCK,MDRR,CFBK,GAIA,GEF-B,SPMC,FRD,MDBH,IRIX,RAL,AIRJ,RNXT | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
21h agoGreif's Q4 EBITDA falls 3.1% on an $18.2M prior-year accrual benefit, but excluding it the quarter grew about 8.7% - QuantisnowQuantisnownot scored
FriAMN,HLF,BSBK,FXNC,IMRX,MRBK,FRST,PDYN,TISI,GRNT,TPL,FTHM,VSTS,RVSB,GEF-B,TMCI,BCRX,SHEN,BTSG,NBBK,CION,USCB | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuAMN,HLF,BSBK,FXNC,IMRX,CRMT,ORN,MRBK,FRST,TISI,GRNT,VSTS,RVSB,GEF-B,BCRX,TMCI,SHEN,DCGO,SABR,NBBK,USCB | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuAMN,PGY,HLF,BSBK,FXNC,IMRX,CRMT,ORN,MRBK,FRST,TISI,GRNT,VSTS,RVSB,GEF-B,SABR,TMCI,SHEN,BCRX,DCGO,NBBK,USCB | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuEG,AMN,HLF,PGY,BSBK,LCNB,IMRX,CRMT,MRBK,ORN,TISI,FRST,GRNT,OVLY,TPL,GEF-B,RVSB,NBBK,HBT | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuGreif CEO Ole G. Rosgaard Acquires 25,189 Restricted Stock Units on November 2, 2026 - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
053 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.55, 29% annual volatility, a -17% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−5.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−10.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-17.1%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.55
The market explains about 6.9% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
29%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure65
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 21%4 quarters · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($9,122,576 across 14 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.5%0.2× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.5% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history4 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record3 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
20 logged
20 calls logged on this name, 3 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksPACKAGING & CONTAINERS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-3.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
SWPeer$44.09-0.94%
PKGPeer$249.70+0.36%
IPPeer$34.53+0.85%
AMCRPeer$44.87-2.12%
AMCCFPeer$47.650.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 5, 2026
Retail sales is due in 9 days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expectedThis report is the sector's own sales figure, printed monthly.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 91 of 172 report days
Across the last 172 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedHomebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 20 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 23 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 20 of 40 report days
Across the last 40 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedPeople spend more when they feel confident.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 26 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.4% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, GEF-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, GEF-B moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
RS · Suppliersupplier+0.71%Rumored · manual
GE · Customercustomer+2.70%Rumored · manual
CAT · Competitorcompetitor+0.90%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.