Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — Packaging & Containers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 481.8K · 3-mo avg 615.0K

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

PKGPackaging Corporation of Americaloading…
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QTick signal
-1net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 3/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$235.99
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$239–242
center $240.51 · basis · bb upper + daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.89
4.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.79×
52-week range$191.50 – $259.98
Below high since 2015-8.8% · $259.98 high
Risk / reward0.29 : 1
Plan stop$225.64
Max pain$210.00 options cluster
RSI 1449.8 fires under 35 · fires near $220.13
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple17.6× fwd · 30.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past96th pctile · 20.1× median
Free cash flow yield3.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
49.8
fires under 35 · fires near $220.13
vs 50-day
✓
$241.60
below the line
Bollinger
●
$226.05
no lower pierce · fires near $224.18
VWAP 20
●
$233.74
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $233.69
Entry level
✓
$235.99
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$220.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context✓
+1.06
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.79×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.18
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 18 sessions
Next dividend
2.53% yld
no ex-date on file