Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — Packaging & Containers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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PKGpeers & supply-chain relationships

PKG fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 612.9K · 3-mo avg 632.0K

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

PKGPackaging Corporation of Americaloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$252.71
near a support level · Nov 9
$261–264
near a resistance level and the 52-week high · midpoint $262.59 · Nov 9
±$13.92
±5.5% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
68% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume26% below normal0.74× its 20-day average
Past year's range$191.50 – $262.59lowest to highest price
From its peak3.1% belowpeak $262.59, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.49 to 1$0.49 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$237.84the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$240.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)59.4fires under 35 · fires near $222.43
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit17.9× next year31.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 100%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 20.2×
Cash it generates3.2%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 31% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
59.4
fires under 35 · fires near $222.43
vs 50-day
●
$237.99
above the line · fires near $240.01
Bollinger
●
$227.95
no lower pierce · fires near $224.97
VWAP 20
●
$247.08
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $247.00
Entry level
✓
$252.71
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$240.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context✓
+0.18
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.74×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.43
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-26
in 52 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
2.36% yld
no ex-date on file