Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — $257.45 +1.06%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

PKGpeers & supply-chain relationships

PKG fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 52.5K · Avg 923.0K
PKGPackaging Corporation of America$257.45+1.06%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

0 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
0 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$253.48
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$257–261
center $258.81 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$16.19
6.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.06× · 52.5K vs 923.0K avg
52-week range$184.76 – $257.45
Below high since 2015-1.6% · $258.81 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$235.28
Max pain$150.00 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1463.7 fires under 35 · fires near $224.04
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$257.45
$199.97 · -22.3%-22.3%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.3% · $273.64+6.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers0 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
63.7
fires under 35 · fires near $224.04
vs 50-day
$234.73
above the line · fires near $236.61
Bollinger
$220.53
no lower pierce · fires near $216.49
VWAP 20
$242.73
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $242.72
Entry level
$253.48
level below · fires near $255.65
Put wall
$200.00
OI strike below · fires near $200.69
MACD
+0.43
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.06×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
4.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.84
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
21 Oct 2026
· in 70 days
Next dividend
2.33% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed