International Paper Company (IP) — Packaging & Containers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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IP fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.66M · 3-mo avg 5.16M

International Paper Company (IP)

IPInternational Paper Companyloading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$35.35
near a recent low, a support level and a heavy put-option level · Nov 9
$36–37
near a resistance level, the options pressure point and the 200-day average · midpoint $36.22 · Nov 9
±$3.72
±10.5% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume8% above normal1.08× its 20-day average
Past year's range$29.26 – $50.25lowest to highest price
From its peak46.4% belowpeak $66.33, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.22 to 1$0.22 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$32.38the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$36.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)56.4fires under 35 · fires near $31.12
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit12.9× next yearloss over the last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastusual P/E 11.6×median of the last 5 years
Cash it generates-0.8%it used more cash than it made

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 34% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
56.4
fires under 35 · fires near $31.12
vs 50-day
●
$34.30
above the line · fires near $34.60
Bollinger
●
$31.68
no lower pierce · fires near $31.18
VWAP 20
●
$34.31
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $34.30
Entry level
✓
$35.35
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$36.00
2026-11-13 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context✓
+0.17
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.08×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.46
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-28
in 54 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.46
ex-date 2026-11-16