International Paper Company (IP) — Packaging & Containers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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IP fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.47M · 3-mo avg 4.90M

International Paper Company (IP)

IPInternational Paper Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 8 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 28/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$34.84
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$37–38
center $37.37 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.91
5.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 9% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 9% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.86×
52-week range$29.26 – $50.25
Below high since 2015-47.2% · $66.33 high
Risk / reward0.81 : 1
Plan stop$32.14
Max pain$34.00 options cluster
RSI 1441.0 fires under 35 · fires near $33.64
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple11.6× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-0.9% · burning cash

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 60% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
41.0
fires under 35 · fires near $33.64
vs 50-day
✓
$38.51
below the line
Bollinger
●
$32.88
no lower pierce · fires near $32.42
VWAP 20
✓
$35.62
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$34.84
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$34.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-22
MACD
Context✓
+0.13
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.86×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.16
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 23 sessions
Next dividend
5.28% yld
no ex-date on file