Deep dive · NasdaqGS: DMLP
Dorchester Minerals, L.P. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Dorchester Minerals, L.P. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — DMLP trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $27.94 · +4.0%
200-day $25.21 · +15.2%
200-day $25.21 · +15.2%
Earnings
In 39 days
5 Nov 2026 · options imply ±5.5%
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Dividend
10.98%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta -0.26 · vol 17% ann.
worst drawdown -16%
worst drawdown -16%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDOil & Gas Exploration & Production
$29.04-0.27 · -0.92%CLOSED · vol 96.6K
52-week range↑ 39% off low · ↓ 4.9% off high
$20.85now $29.04$30.54
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills15.54×healthy >2
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$41.16M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
83rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 0 clear of 2 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 53/100
Business quality
38% net margin, -5% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
53 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
37.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
46.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
37.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
17th pctile
The balance sheet grew -16% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Revenue (TTM)-5% YoY
$168.54M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+1.1%
3 months+14.7%
6 months+3.5%
Year to date+24.9%
1 year+12.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-5.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-45.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+26.9%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 15%
85 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 39 DAYS
5 Nov 2026
Reports amc · revenue 0.00
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
10.98%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,132,432
21d47%-0.1%531,932
63d48%-0.7%170,248
slope +0.13 over 40 bars
Spinning top
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%195,526
21d49%-0.1%92,054
63d50%0.0%29,367
small body, shadows both sides
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%324,295
21d47%0.0%152,024
63d50%0.0%48,500
matching highs
Rising wedge · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%227,887
21d49%0.0%106,738
63d50%0.0%34,201
rising & converging — bearish
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $29.04, RSI 51, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2002 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $27.94 · 200-day $25.21. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.92% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
51
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±1.9%
$0.54
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.18
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position26% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$29.49
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$28.91
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 39 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 8 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.73× segment rate · n=16,681
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 58% of cases (n=16,681).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$28 – $292 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $28.69, Pivot low at $28.36.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.81pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.85
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported16.6×92nd of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit9.3×5yr median 7.9×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay11.2×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value9.29%
1 of the 5 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$28.89Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetCall wall
$30.00$30–$30
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$27.81risk $1.09/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.02:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-3.8%
short-term trend line · $27.94
To the 200-day
-13.2%
primary trend line · $25.21
To the put wall
+3.3%
heaviest put open interest · $30.00
To the call wall
+3.3%
heaviest call open interest · $30.00
To the composer's target
+3.3%
Call wall · set Sep 25, 2026 · $30.00
To the composer's stop
-4.2%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $27.81
To the 52-week high
+5.2%
highest print of the past year · $30.54
To the 52-week low
-28.2%
lowest print of the past year · $20.85
Options-implied week ±5.5%
$27.45 – $30.63
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$28.50 – $29.58
±$0.54 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $28.89 · stop $27.81 · target $30.00, a 1.02:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, gamma ceiling, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain+3.3%
$30.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
2.28
30% calls
70% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
1.50
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $1.59
±5.5%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$30.00PUT483
$30.00CALL192
$25.00PUT26
$15.00CALL12
$20.00CALL7
$35.00CALL5
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $30.00
5
$35.00
0192
$30.00
4832
$25.00
260
$22.50
07
$20.00
05
$17.50
012
$15.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$30.54+5.2%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$30.00+3.3%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$30.00+3.3%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$27.94-3.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$30.00+3.3%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 26%, short interest is 0.86% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Insider flow120D · TIMING
+2
net insider buying ($353,795 across 4 buys) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (0/100)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
25.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
9.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.86%
Falling — shares short changed -35.6% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float93% OF SHARES
45.06M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)58th PCTILE
$4.92M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
MORIYAMA LESLIE A · Chief Financial OfficerBuy$147,075—19 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-0.92%
DMLP fell −0.92% since the last close alongside 4 of 4 peers (median 1.67%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
News tone · 7-day—
0 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 44 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuDMLP May 2027 15.000 call (DMLP270521C00015000) interactive stock chart – Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
TueDorchester Minerals (NASDAQ:DMLP) Stock Price Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average - Time to Sell? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Sep 17Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) Shares Fall 3.1% -- What GF Score of 85 Tells Investors - GuruFocusGuruFocusnot scored
Sep 16Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) Draws Fresh Attention, Is The Valuation Case Still Compelling? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
Sep 15Dorchester Minerals: Don't Panic When The Distribution Drops Next Quarter - Seeking AlphaSeeking Alphanot scored
Sep 14Dorchester Minerals LP stock hits 52-week high at $29.74 By Investing.com - Investing.com South AfricaInvesting.com South Africanot scored
Sep 14Dorchester Minerals LP stock hits 52-week high at $29.74 - Investing.comInvesting.comnot scored
Sep 14Dorchester Minerals (NASDAQ:DMLP) Sets New 1-Year High - What's Next? - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
1 of 1 disclosures are buys and 0 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta -0.26, 17% annual volatility, a -16% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-16.4%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
-0.26
The market explains about 2.1% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
17%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure18
Buying pressure19
Overheat5
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (0/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.0%0.1× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 55.0% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=140,733). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.1% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 39 days, and the chain prices ±5.5% for the week.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
11 logged
11 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on DMLPTHIS NAME
11
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksOIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 5 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+70.7% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 70.7% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
COPPeer$127.30-1.58%
CNQPeer$47.41-1.08%
EOGPeer$140.35-1.76%
OXYPeer$56.86-2.05%
TRMOYPeer$15.000.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 26, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Less commuting, shipping and factory activity means less fuel demand.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 94 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, DMLP moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedDrillers earn more when energy prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, DMLP moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A busier economy burns more fuel.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, DMLP moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedMore people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, DMLP moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedMore people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 10 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, DMLP moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedDrillers earn more when energy prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, DMLP moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expected
Drillers earn more when energy prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.1% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DMLP moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Drillers earn more when energy prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.3% · Rose on 22 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DMLP moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 26, 2026
Customer momentumBOTTOM
-6.6%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapAHEAD OF CUSTOMERS
+7.7%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
FANG15.0%-6.6%2025-02-20
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections5 links · 2 confirmed
Direct connections · 5 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
FANG · Suppliersupplier-1.24%Confirmed · 10K
XOM · Suppliersupplier-0.96%Confirmed · 10K
CAT · Suppliersupplier+2.03%Rumored · manual
XOM · Customercustomer-0.96%Rumored · manual
EPD · Competitorcompetitor-1.40%Rumored · manual
2 of 5 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.