Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) — $47.25 +3.82%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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CNQ fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.95M · Avg 8.09M
CNQCanadian Natural Resources Limited$47.25+3.82%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

1 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+5net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
1 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.8× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$47.01
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$50–51
center $50.44 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.86× · 6.95M vs 8.09M avg
52-week range$29.30 – $51.34
Below high since 2015-8.0% · $51.34 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.9
Plan stop$43.24
Max pain
RSI 1460.7 fires under 35 · fires near $39.89
Forensic flags0 clean
What-if price
$47.25
$39.70 · -16.0%-16.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.0% · $50.11+6.0%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
60.7
fires under 35 · fires near $39.89
vs 50-day
$43.68
above the line · fires near $44.04
Bollinger
$42.25
no lower pierce · fires near $41.73
VWAP 20
$45.08
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $45.08
Entry level
$47.01
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+0.02
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.86×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
not on file
ATRStatic
$1.43
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
5 Nov 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 85 days
Next dividend
3.77% yld
no ex-date on file
Appears in
prices 15-min delayed