Deep dive · NYQ: CSAN
Cosan S.A. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Cosan S.A. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — CSAN trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Earnings
In 5 days
13 Nov 2026
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
Valuation
11.1× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 10×
FCF yield 168.39%
FCF yield 168.39%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
worst drawdown -5%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYQ · USDOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$2.75-0.05 · -1.79%CLOSED · vol 2.36M
52-week range↑ 16% off low · ↓ 51.0% off high
$2.38now $2.75$5.61
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-10-02
Tape 2026-10-02
01Ratios · Jul 8, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJul 8, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.58×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital13.32
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$43.40B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
94th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.43Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -3.42M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.94long-term debt 1.94× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 14/100
Business quality
-24% net margin, -183% return on equity, -8% revenue growth, and capital earning 12% against a 9% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
14 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-24.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
32.6%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
26.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-183.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
3.5pp
Earns 12% on invested capital that costs about 9%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+3.4%
3 months-0.7%
6 months-28.2%
Year to date-23.8%
1 year-34.1%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-8.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Around earningsAug 15, 2024
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Beat and still fellSHARE OF ALL PRINTS
27%
Of every report in the window, this share both beat consensus and closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
71%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Oct 13, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.14 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d35%0.0%529,694
21d39%0.0%247,920
63d44%0.0%76,794
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Tweezer top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%332,816
21d47%0.0%157,210
63d49%0.0%49,660
matching highs
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,261,485
21d50%0.0%593,026
63d52%+0.4%187,344
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%667,086
21d51%+0.1%313,950
63d53%+0.4%99,082
flat resistance, rising support
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%717,973
21d46%-0.6%340,024
63d47%-1.3%107,220
U-base + small handle pullback
0311.1× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $2.75, 11.1× forward earnings, RSI 56.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
56WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-30 → 2026-10-02
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 1.79% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $3 · S1 $3
$3.01
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownUP SETUP
3 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
13 Nov 2026 · in 5 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=82,829
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 80% of cases (n=82,829).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-10.94
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months11.1×5yr median 10×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.1×5yr median 0.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.5×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay12.7×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off10.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value168.39%
0 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 2%, short interest is 0.26% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
1.7%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.26%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Dollar volume (ADV)58th PCTILE
$4.82M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -1
+1 / −2
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Nov 6, 2026PEER COMOVE
-1.79%
CSAN fell −1.79% since the last close alongside 2 of 3 peers (median 1.36%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -5% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-5.4%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
1.5%0.1× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 5 days.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
10 logged
10 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksOIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-5.7% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VLOPeer$346.45-1.36%
MPCPeer$372.74-1.21%
PSXPeer$245.72-0.53%
DINOPeer$97.18-0.60%
SUNPeer$61.73+1.69%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
1 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 4, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Less commuting, shipping and factory activity means less fuel demand.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.9% · Two weeks later -1.7% · Rose on 79 of 168 report days
Across the last 168 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CSAN moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A busier economy burns more fuel.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later -1.1% · Two weeks later -2.0% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, CSAN moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 2.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI) is due in 5 days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -1.9% · Two weeks later -1.7% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSAN moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -2.0% · Rose on 13 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CSAN moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 2.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI) is due in 2 days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -1.6% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSAN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Inflation (CPI) is due in 2 days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedOil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -1.6% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CSAN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
More people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 16 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, CSAN moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expected
More people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 13 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, CSAN moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
SHEL · Partnerpartner-1.03%Rumored · manual
VALE · Partnerpartner+1.22%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.