Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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VLO fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 11:20 AM ETVol 2.08M · 3-mo avg 2.85M

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

VLOValero Energy Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~20% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$406.78
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit
at new highs
Implied move · 1 wk
±$27.50
6.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 68% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.17×
52-week range$155.29 – $416.66
Below high since 2015-0.2% · $413.44 high
Risk / reward
Plan stop$372.26
Max pain$320.00 options cluster
RSI 1479.9 overbought
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple11.1× fwd · 17.3× trailing
P/E vs its own past63rd pctile · 10.7× median
Free cash flow yield4.1% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 29% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
79.9
overbought
vs 50-day
$334.65
above the line · fires near $336.05
Bollinger
$326.77
no lower pierce · fires near $321.28
VWAP 20
$372.91
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $372.40
Entry level
$406.78
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$380.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+2.42
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.17×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$13.73
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-22
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
1.17% yld
no ex-date on file