Vale S.A. (VALE) — Industrial Metals & Mining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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VALE fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 10:50 AM ETVol 16.88M · 3-mo avg 25.43M

Vale S.A. (VALE)

VALEVale S.A.loading…
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QTick signal
-2net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 0 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on fileOKPCE inflation days · ~11% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 4/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$14.40
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.3% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$14–15
center $14.61 · basis · daily pivot + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.95×
52-week range$10.58 – $17.94
Below high since 2015-39.3% · $23.83 high
Risk / reward0.22 : 1
Plan stop$13.42
Max pain
RSI 1445.1 fires under 35 · fires near $13.20
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple28.5× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past95th pctile · 5.8× median
Price / booknot on file

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 1.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
45.1
fires under 35 · fires near $13.20
vs 50-day
$14.48
below the line
Bollinger
$14.15
no lower pierce · fires near $14.12
VWAP 20
$15.02
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$14.40
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
Context
-0.15
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.95×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
8.37% yld
no ex-date on file