Vale S.A. (VALE) — Industrial Metals & Mining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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VALE fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 38.86M · 3-mo avg 32.94M

Vale S.A. (VALE)

VALEVale S.A.loading…
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QTick signal
-3net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileOKInflation-report days · ~10% smaller swingsOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 40/100 · Nov 6
$11.53
near the 52-week low and a support level · Nov 6
$13–14
near the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $13.46 · Nov 6
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
68% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume5% above normal1.05× its 20-day average
Past year's range$10.96 – $17.94lowest to highest price
From its peak51.4% belowpeak $23.83, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.91 to 1$1.91 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$10.61the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)36.0fires under 35 · fires near $11.54
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit72.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 100%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 5.7×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 68% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
●
36.0
fires under 35 · fires near $11.54
vs 50-day
✓
$13.50
below the line
Bollinger
●
$10.57
no lower pierce · fires near $10.33
VWAP 20
✓
$12.08
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$11.53
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.01
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.05×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.40
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2027-02-11
in 65 sessions
Next dividend
7.25% yld
no ex-date on file