Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MPCpeers & supply-chain relationships

MPC fair-value estimate

MPC earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.48M · 3-mo avg 2.59M

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileOKInflation-report days · ~13% smaller swingsRiskFalling sharply · sharp-drop risk 92/100 · was 0 on Nov 3 · Nov 60/6Bottom watch · 0 of 6 confirmations
$370.88
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$415–426
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $420.15 · Nov 6
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 12% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
High
87% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.3× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 12% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume9% above normal1.09× its 20-day average
Past year's range$161.93 – $493.98lowest to highest price
From its peak24.5% belowpeak $493.98, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.06 to 1$1.06 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$327.92the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)30.2washed out
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit6.1× next year7.4× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 53%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 6.8×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 1.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 68% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
30.2
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$421.74
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$381.21
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$441.07
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$370.88
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-12.23
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.09×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$21.48
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-02
in 58 sessions
Next dividend
1.18% yld
no ex-date on file