Deep dive · NYSE: CHMI-PB
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — CHMI-PB trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $24.02 · -1.5%
200-day $23.04 · +2.7%
200-day $23.04 · +2.7%
Dividend
10.39%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.14 · vol 5% ann.
worst drawdown -4%
worst drawdown -4%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does168 chars
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation, a residential real estate finance company, acquires, invests, and manages residential mortgage assets in the United States.
NYSE · USDMortgage REITs
$23.67-0.05 · -0.21%CLOSED · vol 2.9K
52-week range↑ 4% off low · ↓ 4.1% off high
$22.67now $23.67$24.68
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 12:39 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/7WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
90th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-5.03%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.61long-term debt 0.61× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 33/100
Business quality
29% net margin, 3% return on equity, -33% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
33 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
29.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
2.9%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-1.7%
3 months-4.1%
6 months+1.6%
Year to date+0.4%
1 year-2.9%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-32.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+10.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 46%
55 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
10.39%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.02 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $23.67, RSI 38.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $24.02 · 200-day $23.04. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.21% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
38
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.8%
$0.19
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position8% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$23.88
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$23.65
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.84× segment rate · n=7,552
Historically, micro names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 74% of cases (n=7,552).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$23 – $243 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $23.60, S1 at $23.59, Pivot low at $23.32.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
3 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.87pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported43.0×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit12.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.3×
2 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableMicro-cap names are excluded from the level composer by design. At this size the daily range routinely swallows the distance between an entry and a stop, so the levels would describe noise rather than structure.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 0%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
0.0%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Dollar volume (ADV)22nd PCTILE
$65,495/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.21%
CHMI-PB was little changed −0.21% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.14, 5% annual volatility, a -4% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−1.6%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−2.9%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-3.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.14
The market explains about 3.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
5%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure55
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.0%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.0% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.2%0.2× its cohort · thinnest-traded micro-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinnest-traded micro-caps segment: 7.8%. This name reads 0.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 2.8% · tail cap 2.0% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 2.0% is the number (n=82,667). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 0.7% against a 23.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.0% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
10 logged
10 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on CHMI-PBTHIS NAME
10
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksMORTGAGE REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-9.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NLYCompetitor$20.61+0.05%
AGNCPeer$9.620.00%
STWDPeer$14.360.00%
RITMPeer$9.13+0.11%
BXMTPeer$12.50+0.89%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
1 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, CHMI-PB moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Mortgage holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, CHMI-PB moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedThese trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, CHMI-PB moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CHMI-PB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
These trusts hold mortgages, and those holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Typical for the Mortgage REITs industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, CHMI-PB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 85 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, CHMI-PB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, CHMI-PB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually hurts when hiring comes in stronger than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, CHMI-PB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BK · Suppliersupplier+7.61%Rumored · manual
NLY · Competitorcompetitor+0.05%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.