Deep dive · NasdaqGS: CBRS
Cerebras Systems Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Cerebras Systems Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — CBRS trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Earnings
In 44 days
10 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 2.86 · vol 65% ann.
worst drawdown -46%
worst drawdown -46%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USDSemiconductors
$206.75+0.34 · +0.16%CLOSED · vol 5.64M
52-week range↑ 29% off low · ↓ 46.5% off high
$160.81now $206.75$386.34
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.15×healthy >2
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$439.88M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
25th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 10.64Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCRITICALM 2.06M-score elevated · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026EXCELLENT · 83/100
Business quality
47% net margin, -41% return on equity, +76% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
83 / 100EXCELLENT
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
46.6%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
39.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
-28.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-41.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+10.8%
3 months-4.4%
Year to date-33.5%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+75.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Relative-strength rankTOP 19%
81 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 12, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
2 of 2
Its own record against consensus. 2 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 2 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 44 DAYS
10 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $-0.14 · revenue 214.7 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.17 over 40 bars
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%494,581
21d50%0.0%232,288
63d51%+0.2%73,891
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Symmetrical triangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%302,717
21d46%-0.5%142,134
63d46%-1.7%45,152
converging highs & lows — breakout pending
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.2%701,064
21d47%-0.4%328,275
63d47%-1.4%104,377
U-base + small handle pullback
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $206.75, RSI 54.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
54COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 93 sessions2026-05-14 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.16% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Typical day (ATR-14)±5.3%
$10.92
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+2.66
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position78% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$195.37
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$189.75
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $212 · S1 $203
$207.79
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
10 Nov 2026 · in 44 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 19 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.33× segment rate · n=6,737
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 88% of cases (n=6,737).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$191 – $2062 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $202.57, Pivot low at $196.73.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-4.98pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$2.04
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported511.1×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit96.3×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-0.80%
3 of the 3 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$205.72In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$386.34$384–$389
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$183.88risk $21.84/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
8.27:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-2.0%
short-term trend line · $202.71
To the composer's target
+86.9%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $386.34
To the composer's stop
-11.1%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $183.88
To the 52-week high
+86.9%
highest print of the past year · $386.34
To the 52-week low
-22.2%
lowest print of the past year · $160.81
A typical day (ATR)
$195.83 – $217.67
±$10.92 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $205.72 · stop $183.88 · target $386.34, a 8.27:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference, far target.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 79%, short interest is 147.65% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 75%
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
78.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
9.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
147.65%
Falling — shares short changed -19.2% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float25% OF SHARES
8.67M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)99th PCTILE
$1.35B/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+0.16%
CBRS was little changed +0.16% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.86, 65% annual volatility, a -46% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-45.8%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
2.86
The market explains about 9.4% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
65%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure51
Overheat26
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
36.4%3.9× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 3.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 22.5% · tail cap 2.4% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 2.4% is the number (n=21,870). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 10.3% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 7.1 quarters of cash at current burn ($702M cash against $393M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 23.5% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -46%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 65% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.86 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
23 logged
23 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on CBRSTHIS NAME
23
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksSEMICONDUCTORS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 4 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Inflation (CPI) reaction
1.54×n=4
On these days it moves about 1.5× the market, regardless of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NVDACompetitor$225.07+0.22%
TSMSupplier$450.61-0.12%
AVGOPeer$352.81+0.70%
MUPeer$1,082.28+0.16%
AMDPeer$630.63+0.22%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2026-05-14
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Jobs report reactionn=4
0.62×
On these days it moves about 0.6× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=4
1.19×
On these days it moves about 1.2× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=4
1.14×
On these days it moves about 1.1× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 27, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later -2.2% · Rose on 7 of 16 report days
Across the last 16 Initial jobless claims reports since May 21, 2026, CBRS moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.4% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -2.3% · A week later +3.3% · Two weeks later -3.9% · Rose on 2 of 4 report days
Only 4 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 4 FOMC decision reports since May 31, 2026, CBRS moved -2.3% on average on the day and was 3.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Bank of Japan decisionUsually hurts when the Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expected
The AI trade was financed with cheap yen and unwinds first.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
DRAM / NAND contract price printUsually helps when memory prices rise
Memory makers sell at the higher price.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Export-control or entity-list actionUsually hurts when export controls are tightened
The restricted chips lose a whole market.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Korea 20-day exports (semiconductor line)Usually helps when Korea's chip exports come in stronger than expected
Samsung and SK Hynix ship from Korea, so this is the earliest read on world memory demand.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
SK Hynix earnings and HBM guidanceUsually helps when SK Hynix beats expectations
Nvidia's main memory supplier and Micron's closest rival.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Samsung Electronics preliminary resultsUsually helps when Samsung's profit beats expectations
Micron sells the same memory chips; Samsung's prices are its prices.
Typical for the Semiconductors industry
No price history on file yet for CBRS around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections4 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 4 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
TSM · Suppliersupplier-0.12%Rumored · manual
GROQ · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
AAPL · Customercustomer+1.53%Rumored · manual
NVDA · Competitorcompetitor+0.22%Rumored · manual
0 of 4 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.