Deep dive · Paris: BNP.PA
BNP Paribas SA stock analysis
Everything behind the call on BNP Paribas SA. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — BNP.PA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-14
Valuation
7.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
Dividend
5.59%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does147 chars
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
Paris · USDRegional Banks
$103.76+1.12 · +1.09%CLOSED · vol 1.35M
52-week range↑ 59% off low · ↓ 8.8% off high
$65.12now $103.76$113.82
Quote Sep 11, 2026 · 11:38 AM ET
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-14
Tape 2026-09-18
Factors 2026-09-14
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/7CLEAR
Piotroski F-score 6 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
7th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
1 critical · 0 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 3.01long-term debt 3.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 6/7Piotroski F-score 6 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 43/100
Business quality
18% net margin, 10% return on equity, +4% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
43 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
17.8%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
9.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-4.5%
3 months+1.2%
Year to date+22.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+4.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+7.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohort
Data unavailableNo chart pattern is currently detected on this name, so there is no cohort base rate to show.
037.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $103.76, 7.8× forward earnings, RSI 45.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
45COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 118 sessions2026-04-07 → 2026-09-18
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.09% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.22
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
RSI divergenceCONFIRMED
None
Price highs and momentum highs agree, so there is no hidden weakness in the advance.
Relative volume (20d)BELOW TREND
0.77×
Today's volume against the 20-day average. Above trend means real participation behind the move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Unknownn=214,592
Pullback base rate 75% over 63 trading days (n=214,592).
Slide scorefalling-knife check
36 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months7.8×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported9.0×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.9×
0 of the 4 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThe entry/exit composer abstained for this name, and its levels are one coherent system — substituting pivots or an odds-engine stop under the same labels would be a different set of numbers wearing these names.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 48%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
48.0%RETAIL-HEAVY
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
11.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 19, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for BNP.PA to measure its move since the last close.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
24% annual volatility, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Annualized volatility
24%ORDINARY
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure62
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
12.5%4.2× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 4.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 54.0% · tail cap 3.4% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=8,289). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Data unavailableNone of the skip conditions can be evaluated for this name yet — they each need a measured drawdown, beta, yield or scheduled report to key off.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
2 logged
2 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on BNP.PATHIS NAME
2
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksREGIONAL BANKS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 7 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Next macro catalyst
Consumer SentimentIN 7 DAYS
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MFGPeer$10.94-1.17%
HDBPeer$23.16+2.21%
MZHOFPeer$57.330.00%
IBNPeer$28.15-0.11%
USBPeer$60.06-0.32%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2026-06-02
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Events · what moves this stockSep 6, 2026
Fed H.8 weekly bank creditUsually helps when lending grows faster than expected
Business and property loans are read straight off this report.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
10y / 30y Treasury auctionUsually hurts when demand for the bonds is weak
Smaller banks hold long bonds that lose value when long-term rates jump.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
ADP private payrollsUsually helps when private hiring comes in stronger than expected
Fewer loan defaults and more borrowing when hiring is strong.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Bank of Japan decisionUsually hurts when the Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expected
A jump in the yen forces investors who borrowed it cheaply to sell what they bought with it, US stocks included.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Beige BookUsually helps when business conditions read stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Conference Board consumer confidenceUsually helps when consumers feel better than expected
Confident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 6 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
No price history on file yet for BNP.PA around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections7 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 7 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
HSBC · Competitorcompetitor-0.98%Rumored · manual
MSFT · Partnerpartner-0.80%Rumored · manual
DB · Competitorcompetitor-2.74%Rumored · manual
MA · Partnerpartner-0.09%Rumored · manual
V · Partnerpartner-0.44%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Partnerpartner+1.00%Rumored · manual
C · Competitorcompetitor-0.70%Rumored · manual
0 of 7 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.