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Events · who it helps and who it hurts

10y / 30y Treasury auction

The government sells 10- and 30-year bonds; weak demand pushes long-term rates up.

Next release date not on file yet

The reads below are for when demand for the bonds is weak. Expect the opposite when demand for the bonds is strong.

Sectors

Real EstateUsually hurtsProperty values fall when long-term rates rise.
UtilitiesUsually hurtsUtilities trade like bonds and fall with them.
Financial ServicesUsually helpsBanks earn more when long-term rates rise above short-term ones.
TechnologyUsually hurtsWeak demand pushes long-term rates up, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Basic MaterialsLittle effectLittle direct link.
Communication ServicesLittle effectLittle direct link.
Consumer CyclicalLittle effectLittle direct link.
Consumer DefensiveLittle effectLittle direct link.
EnergyLittle effectLittle direct link.
HealthcareLittle effectLittle direct link.
IndustrialsLittle effectLittle direct link.

Where each sector’s relative strength sits this week is on the rotation board.

Industries that behave differently from their sector

REIT - MortgageUsually hurtsMortgage holdings lose value when long-term rates rise.
Residential ConstructionUsually hurtsMortgage rates follow the 10-year bond.
Banks - DiversifiedUsually helpsBig banks earn more when long-term rates rise above short-term ones.
Banks - RegionalUsually hurtsSmaller banks hold long bonds that lose value when long-term rates jump.
Insurance - LifeUsually helpsLife insurers earn more on new bonds they buy.

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