Deep dive · NYSE: BNED
Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +4 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.47, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, quality / value vote up. 2 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
2 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −13.1%; and the binding position cap is 2.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-1.85%
Frankfurt2BN0-1.85%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $11.98 · -5.4%
200-day $10.22 · +10.8%
200-day $10.22 · +10.8%
Earnings
In 74 days
10 Dec 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
Valuation
11.1× forward
Against consensus earnings
Dividend
2.82%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.67 · vol 53% ann.
worst drawdown -38%
worst drawdown -38%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDSpecialty Retail
$11.33+0.20 · +1.80%CLOSED · vol 138.8K
52-week range↑ 92% off low · ↓ 23.2% off high
$5.90now $11.33$14.75
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 12:06 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Aug 9, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.97GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetAug 9, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 7/8
Piotroski F-score 7 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.10
Your ownership stake
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-22.08%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.4%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.97Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/8Piotroski F-score 7 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
+33.4%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.4%
3 months-16.4%
6 months+29.9%
Year to date+31.6%
1 year+21.2%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 25%
25 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsSep 8, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
22%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
27%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±9.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.17 over 40 bars
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d44%0.0%344,241
21d46%0.0%162,135
63d47%0.0%51,160
matching lows
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%430,231
21d50%0.0%203,310
63d50%+0.1%64,486
falling & converging — bullish
0311.1× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $11.33, 11.1× forward earnings, RSI 48.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $11.98 · 200-day $10.22. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.80% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
48
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.6%
$0.52
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.03
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position49% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$11.33
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$11.34
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
10 Dec 2026 · in 74 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 11 Sept; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.20× segment rate · n=12,184
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 95% of cases (n=12,184).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$10 – $113 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $11.10, Pivot low at $11.08, Pivot low at $10.47.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
13 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
0.69pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months11.1×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported17.0×
0 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$11.27In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$11.95$12–$12
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$10.08risk $1.20/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.57:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+5.7%
short-term trend line · $11.98
To the 200-day
-9.8%
primary trend line · $10.22
To the composer's target
+5.5%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $11.95
To the composer's stop
-11.1%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $10.08
To the 52-week high
+30.2%
highest print of the past year · $14.75
To the 52-week low
-47.9%
lowest print of the past year · $5.90
A typical day (ATR)
$10.81 – $11.85
±$0.52 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $11.27 · stop $10.08 · target $11.95, a 0.57:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +4
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 92%, short interest is 9.31% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+4LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 27%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (7/8)
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +4 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.47 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
92.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
9.9%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
9.31%
Rising — shares short changed +27.5% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float50% OF SHARES
17.17M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)55th PCTILE
$3.64M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
+1.80%
BNED rose +1.80% since the last close alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 2.64%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.67, 53% annual volatility, a -38% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−13.1%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-38.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.67
Moves about 1.7× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
53%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure47
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.1%0.7× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.3% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history4 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -38%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 53% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.67 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
15 logged
15 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on BNEDTHIS NAME
15
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksSPECIALTY RETAIL
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+11.6% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
WSMPeer$231.90+1.42%
CASYPeer$598.46-0.07%
DKSPeer$136.43+2.39%
ULTAPeer$545.20-0.65%
TSCOPeer$32.27+2.64%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
Their own sales are in the report.
Typical for the Specialty Retail industry
On the day -1.2% · A week later +5.7% · Two weeks later +3.9% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, BNED moved -1.2% on average on the day and was 3.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +1.5% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 91 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, BNED moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedHigher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later -4.1% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, BNED moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 4.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier car loans, mortgages and credit cards mean less consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -4.3% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, BNED moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 4.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Homebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +6.3% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 12 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, BNED moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -1.2% · A week later +5.7% · Two weeks later +3.9% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, BNED moved -1.2% on average on the day and was 3.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedPaychecks are what people spend at stores, restaurants and car dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later -4.5% · Two weeks later -5.2% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, BNED moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 5.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedPaychecks are what people spend at stores, restaurants and car dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -1.0% · A week later -5.2% · Two weeks later -5.2% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, BNED moved -1.0% on average on the day and was 5.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
FDX · Suppliersupplier+2.26%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Customercustomer+0.12%Rumored · manual
TGT · Competitorcompetitor+0.83%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.